LEAVE CAMPAIGN LOSING SUPPORT
But most Scots will back UK if SNP calls new separation vote
SUPPORT for remaining in the EU is on the rise in Scotland while the Leave campaign gains ground south of the Border, a new poll revealed last night.
The significant divergence revealed by the TNS study increases the threat of a second independence referendum if the Leave campaign wins.
The TNS poll shows a three-point rise in Scottish support for staying in the EU, up from 48 per cent in April to 51 per cent this week, with 28 per cent still undecided.
When the figures are adjusted to remove the don’t knows, the poll suggests 71 per cent would vote to remain and 29 per cent would vote to leave.
This contrasts strongly with the picture south of the Border, where a string of polls have suggested the campaign to get Britain out of the EU has gained momentum with a little more than two weeks until polling day.
But while Nationalists have said that Brexit would be enough to trigger another independence referendum, the new poll leaves First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in a dilemma as it shows also that 56 per cent of Scots want to remain in the UK.
The survey came as former Foreign Secretary and ex-SDP leader David Owen yesterday entered the campaign north of the Border, claiming that Scotland will be handed substantial powers should the UK opt for Brexit in this month’s referendum.
He said a Leave vote would provide the opportunity to re-examine the constitutional settlements of the UK’s nations, but suggested that could include scrapping the generous Barnett Formula that funds Holyrood.
The SNP responded by saying the Leave campaign ‘seem to have taken leave of their senses’. On the new poll, Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland said: ‘The level of support for the EU in Scotland has shown little change over the last few months and it looks likely that Scotland will vote to remain on June 23.
‘There is still the potential for a high turnout, suggesting the Scottish public can see the importance of this decision.’
He added: ‘The SNP has said that a UK vote to leave the EU could trigger a new referendum on independence. However, on the basis of this latest poll it would appear that appetite for such a move is mostly limited to those who back independence rather than being shared by the public as a whole.’
The poll of 1,008 Scots over the age of 18 found more than half (51 per cent) said they would vote to remain on June 23, up three points. Support for leaving remained steady at 21 per cent, while the remainder said they were not sure which way they would vote.
Last night, a spokesman for Scotland Stronger In Europe said: ‘These figures are encouraging. They show that people in Scotland have the opportunity to come together on June 23 to vote for Remain, bridging other political differences and potentially having a decisive impact on the result UK-wide.
‘But we take nothing for granted and Scotland Stronger In Europe supporters are campaigning hard, demonstrating the gains of staying in Europe in terms of more jobs and lower prices. The benefits of being in Europe touch all parts of Scottish society – rights for families such as maternity and paternity leave, protection for workers including paid holidays, a boost to business from guaranteed access to the single market, freedoms for pensioners and opportunities for young people.’
Meanwhile Lord Owen insisted ‘a constitutional initiative to promote the greater unity of the UK will be both logical and appropriate straight after a nationwide vote to leave the EU’.
Addressing the Scottish Parliamentary Journalists’ Association in Edinburgh, he said: ‘Scotland would have control over substantial additional expenditure. We are already facing a situation where income tax is being assigned in Scotland and Wales.
‘If the UK is to work as a truly united country, there has to be some kind of interrelationship between all parts and not just an ad hoc series of relationships with Whitehall.’
He added: ‘I think it is a very big Scottish interest that you set your overall settlement – but it has got to be within a UK settlement and I think that is the big step forward.’
Asked about the Barnett formula, which ensures Scots receive around £1,700 more per head than people in England, Dr Owen told reporters: ‘A structured conversation as envisaged could explore the methodology for reaching a consensus around the feeling that there must be developed a new needs-based assessment to replace the Barnett Formula.’
Traditionally, Scots have received around 20 per cent more per head than the UK, but a ‘needs-based’ system could reduce that to 5 per cent.
On the latest poll results, Nationalist MSP Christina McKelvie said: ‘The Leave campaign seem to have taken leave of their senses, threatening systematic cuts to Scotland’s budget and a reversal of the gains of devolution in the event of Brexit.
‘It’s tricky to see how this sort of negativity could possibly be a
‘Taken leave of their senses’ ‘These figures are encouraging’
vote winner. Meanwhile the SNP’s campaign will remain focused on the positive case for Scotland and the rest of the UK remaining in the EU.’
Meanwhile, more than half of Scots families are worried about the impact of the EU referendum for their household income.
The survey for finance firm Scottish Friendly suggests that disposable income decreased by £11 from £881 to £870 in the last quarter. And 53.8 per cent of Scots are worried about the impact on bills.
Calum Bennie, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, said: ‘Uncertainty caused by the forthcoming EU referendum is leaving many UK families feeling concerned.’
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