Indyref 2? I admire Nicola’s optimism!

IT’S almost as though they didn’t want us to notice. After all, publishing the draft Bill on a second referendum on Scottish independence during parliamentary recess seems a funny time for the SNP to launch a key document on the issue closest to their fast-beating Nationalist hearts.

It caught the attention of someone, though. Barely had the Bill made its way off the Holyrood photocopiers than Theresa May was issuing a sternly worded statement from 10 Downing Street insisting that Nicola Sturgeon has ‘no mandate’ to launch a second referendum.

‘There was one only two years ago,’ said a Downing Street spokesman. ‘There was an extremely high turnout and there was a resounding result in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK. Both sides agreed to abide by that referendum.’

Intriguingly, however, Downing Street stopped short of saying it would not grant consent to another referendum, saying simply ‘there has not been a call’ for one. Not yet, at least.

And this is the rub. Westminster has the power to deny the Scottish Government a second referendum. Ultimately, it lies entirely in their hands. But will they? Ruth Davidson has stated that Westminster should not stand in the way of another vote. Yet the mood music emanating from south of the Border suggests they just might.

Would this be a good idea? I’m not so sure. Say no, and they play straight into the hands of the SNP and all those who churn out the usual ‘Wastemonster’ nonsense about our Evil English Overlords. It will harden support for independence, and merely delay proceedings. Say yes however, and they risk breaking up the UK. After the shock result of the EU referendum in June, you can’t blame them for being cautious.

THE question, though, is whether a referendum within the next year would produce the result the SNP so desperately wants. The party itself seems split on timings – some want a campaign launched the second Article 50 is triggered next March, while Miss Sturgeon herself seems cautiously vague on the matter.

Certainly, current polls do not favour the Nationalists. One, published a fortnight ago, puts support for independence at 45 for and 55 against. Exactly the results of the actual referendum – you know, the one we all voted in – two years ago. It’s almost as though the whole thing would be pointless.

Still, the SNP is nothing if not optimistic, forever convinced it can talk those malingering no voters round if only they would just listen.

And don’t forget of course, we still have the results of Sturgeon’s ‘listening exercise’ (that’s the online survey with questions like ‘if there was a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?’), which runs until St Andrew’s Day, and for which we await the results with breath that is bated.

Like many Scots, I do not want another referendum. I agree with Mrs May that Scotland spoke up two years ago and that the decision we made as a country then should be respected.

But there now seems very little hope that will happen. The SNP cannot, and will not, let this go. And if that really is to be the case, I’d rather we got it out the way sooner rather than later so we might, finally, get back to the business of actually running the country. Novel idea, I know. If there really were a referendum tomorrow, Scotland would once again vote No. As former Labour leader Wendy Alexander told the Scottish Government back in 2008 on exactly the same subject: ‘Bring it on.’