With Nicola at the tiller, the good ship SNP may founder on the rocks of the EU

THE seas of 2017 may be uncharted but we can still have a look at the crews who will sail them, those who will stand on the bridge, and we can guess at the weather. Prime Minister Theresa May seems to have the most difficult command of all. The conflicting gales of nationalism will make going decidedly rough.

I have never been a fan of nationalism – be it Scottish, British, German, Russian, American, or any other sort. I am a patriot and believe in self-determination but nationalism is something different.

It is the enemy of rational thought. It demands you believe without question. You have to trust in the exceptionalism of your own identity but cannot ask what is wrong in your country or suggest how to right it.

Instead you console yourself – or rather glory – in the idea it is all someone else’s fault. Responsibility-free judgmentalism. A licence to loathe rather than act on the real priorities. And all that anger in the guise of loving your country.

But nationalism is blowing around the globe. One of its many difficulties is that initially nationalists embrace other nationalists. They cherish each other’s belief in exceptionalism but inevitably that leads to inconsistency and conflict in logic.

Former First Minister Alex Salmond is an avowed admirer of Vladimir Putin. He likes the fact he has, apparently, restored ‘Russian pride’. He might want to revise that published opinion.

If he doesn’t, Mr Salmond then chooses to ignore that the Russian economy is tanking, that Mr Putin’s militarism appears a distraction from that and that he has been accused of assassinating political opponents at home and abroad.

Perhaps in Strichen those are small faults in a ‘good nationalist’.

Putin’s annexation of Crimea would also have to be forgiven; threatening the independence of Ukraine put down as ‘just one of those things’. And the people who sought self-determination in Aleppo, only to find themselves the victims of Russian genocide, couldn’t be mentioned.

When does admiration for Mr Putin’s ‘nationalism’ become supporting Russian imperialism at the cost of smaller nationalist causes?

When the bombing of Aleppo was at its height, Mr Salmond decided the SNP should hold a House of Commons debate on the Iraq war of 2002 rather than make a stance about Russian atrocities of today.

Strange bedfellows these nationalists but, whatever they take to their beds, consistency and morality aren’t among them.

The SNP would do well to distance itself from the Putin brand of its creed and slap down maverick MPs – such as Paul Monaghan – who spread conspiracy theories. But like a comedy soap opera, there is another problem with Salmond’s stance. Donald Trump, whom he used to admire but now despises, now admires Putin – who Salmond also likes.

The President-Elect’s latest tweet of admiration for his Russian counterpart is dangerous. With Russian forces building up on the borders of the Baltic states, their domination of Syria and the incoming Trump’s willingness to build bridges with Putin, the US may not be the guarantor of European freedom it once was.

Dignity

This is going to be one of the biggest and most delicate problems for the Prime Minister. In situations when European security is threatened, Britain usually takes the helm, armed with our ‘special relationship’ with the US.

But the UK cannot lead the European Union while leaving it and with Mr Trump in the White House, what was once special might now turn distinctly peculiar.

One of President Obama’s last acts was to get the US to vote in condemnation of Israel building new settlements on what was once Palestinian land.

Israel complained, Mr Trump backed them and, despite the vote being in line with British foreign policy, Mrs May went along with the criticism of Mr Obama.

The early signs are that the PM wants to have Donald Trump on board at all costs.

This is going to be tricky for two reasons. The more Mr Trump’s agenda diverges from the EU, Britain’s support for him will make Brexit negotiations more difficult.

Then there is the question of whether Mr Trump can be consistent. Britain’s dignity and power will be diminished if we are seen to twist with his moods.

The truth is that Mrs May faces more diplomatic challenges on more fronts than any British Prime Minister since before the Second World War. The Brexit landscape is likely to shift over the next 12 months. French elections will see France move to the right – the only question is the degree. If Marine Le Pen does a Trump and becomes President of France there may not be a European Union to leave.

Angela Merkel may hold on in Germany but their equivalent of Ukip is likely to win a number of seats and gain influence.

In the Netherlands, anti-EU feeling is rising and likely to be expressed big time in their polls.

All of this will be against the backdrop of how much licence President Trump is prepared to give to Mr Putin’s desire to be a major player in Europe and the Middle East – and then we get back to that ‘special relationship’ again.

Mrs May will do well to come up with anything resembling a foreign policy in a world where consistency is going to be elusive. One thing which is for sure is that whatever it is, it is unlikely to involve her Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson – and that brings us to her troubles at home.

Mr Johnson’s appointment was a piece of internal Tory Party management and a sign that foreign policy will be dictated by No 10 and not Eton’s most famous clown.

But for all the tricks in her Cabinet appointments, Mrs May’s No 10 does not look terribly adroit at handling her senior colleagues. Her gatekeepers seem to have mistaken stamping her authority on the Government with stamping on colleagues’ throats.

With an effective majority of only 18, and a party as split as ever on Europe, Mrs May might need the support of some of those whose careers her acolytes have tried to finish. Mr Johnson might not take to the sidelines as easily as they would hope.

Then there is Mrs May’s own nationalist problem in Nicola Sturgeon. She would be best advised to give the First Minister her head. With an extra £5million which could have gone on employing teachers or nurses being diverted to Miss Sturgeon’s European travel plans, she clearly plans to clock up air miles, if nothing else.

She is determined, she says, to ensure that Scotland’s ‘democratic will’ to stay in the EU single market be respected – even if it means undermining Scotland’s democratic will to remain in the UK.

In Miss Sturgeon’s world, clearly all referendums are equal – but some are more equal than others.

But the fact remains that the First Minister’s demands are incompatible with both EU law and the realities of European politics. Her hard course may well see Scotland run aground.

As much as politics can be predicted in this era, the voyage of 2017 is going to be a fraught one.

For those on the bridge, and all the hands aboard, success may just be survival.