DRAGONS’ LAIR AWAITS
Wales yearning to stop England claiming 16th straight win in Cardiff
AFTER a week dominated by talk of a roof, fear, historical omens, mind games, daffodils, goats and Brian Clough, rugby union is about to break out in Cardiff today and a seismic occasion is on the cards.
Today’s Six Nations match between Wales and England will not be won by a stadium, despite its status as arguably the finest in the sport. It will not be won by a crowd, despite their knack for delivering the most partisan atmosphere anywhere on rugby’s global map.
As ever, this fixture will be decided by a simple equation: which team’s skills, temperament and game plan best cope with the maelstrom of this cross-border collision and all the noise and colour of the backdrop.
For England, what awaits at the Principality Stadium is the toughest European assignment they have faced since Eddie Jones took charge. Wales, in Wales, pose the greatest threat so far to England’s winning streak north of the equator.
Jones’ flawless record since taking charge of England is in danger, make no mistake — especially considering the list of absentees.
This is a day when the Australian would dearly wish to have his full array of firepower. Last week’s tense win over France provided immediate proof about the impact of being without the ball-carrying might of Vunipola brothers Billy and Mako, along with the work-rate and presence of Chris Robshaw and George Kruis.
Add in that James Haskell remains short of action — meaning he was not considered to start — and England’s pack is heavily depleted.
France capitalised and dominated England up front. Somehow, Dylan Hartley and Co must prevent a repeat of that today with the weapons at their disposal.
But England will not be ‘petrified’. Jones spoke last weekend of the fear which has gripped England sides in the Welsh capital but a line-up containing Owen Farrell, Mike Brown or Maro Itoje will enter this fixture with little trepidation.
England are riding high on the back of their record-breaking sequence of 15 consecutive victories, but all that does is reinforce the sense of a team with targets on their heads.
The hosts have their own agenda today, which extends far beyond the ambition of upsetting the neighbours. It is a time of transition for Wales, with Rob Howley overseeing a tactical shift in his role as acting head coach.
While Warren Gatland is in Lions mode, the former scrum-half is out to broaden Wales’s repertoire in attack, but it remains a work in progress. Last weekend’s win in Rome featured elements of the new fast-and-wide intent, but also, at times, a reversion to the direct power-play favoured by Gatland.
The No 10 debate turned out to be a red herring as — predictably — Dan Biggar was retained ahead of rising sensation Sam Davies. So Wales will seek to test England with a barrage of in-field kicks, at least until establishing a platform to unleash wider runners — Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams and, most likely, Alex Cuthbert.
Howley has until an hour before kick-off today to decide if wing George North is fit to start. There has been bluff and double bluff on team selection all week but, in what would be a huge blow for the home side, North is unlikely to recover from a dead leg, with Cuthbert set to deputise.
Wales forwards coach Robin McBryde said: ‘It’s a close call. We’ll give him as long as possible.’
There will be a major focus on the back-row contest, which could be summed up as Welsh pedigree against English promise. Wales will see it as men against boys. Sam Warburton was outstanding against Italy, not least in his shrewd breakdown work, while Justin Tipuric is an asset in open play.
The two home flankers conspired to wreck an English campaign four years ago and could do so again.
Ross Moriarty is a tough, forceful figure at No 8 and Howley has Taulupe Faletau on the bench.
Jones, meanwhile, will trust in a rookie trio, in the belief that Itoje will grow into his new role at blindside.
Jack Clifford offers dynamism on the other flank and Nathan Hughes has it in him to puncture the Welsh defence. England need an impetus and a better return at the rucks, to claim precious front-foot ball.
The scrum is of critical importance and the subject of a reshuffle. Wales will deploy the props who finished their opener in Rome: Rob Evans and Tomas Francis. While that pair gave the tiring Italy a torrid time, they will have their hands full against Joe Marler and Dan Cole.
French referee Jerome Garces is an astute reader of the set-piece, but both packs will know an early advantage will help win 50-50 calls.
England have spoken of their need for better discipline and the presence of Leigh Halfpenny should focus minds. The Wales full-back is a renowned goal-kicker, but the visitors may actually hold the aces.
Not only is Owen Farrell up with Halfpenny as the best in the business — or ‘solar-system class’ in the words of Jones — but England also have Elliot Daly to take shots from halfway and beyond.
Ironically, as the teams come to terms with the bonus-point system, this match may well be settled by kicks, especially if the open roof allows in rain showers or even snow flurries. While both teams desire to play with ambition, the thunderous intensity of the rivalry provides ample sporting drama. The result could shape this Six Nations. The winners will be propelled towards a shot at a Grand Slam. For England, that is the ultimate target — a repeat of last year’s feat. They are marginal favourites, but the odds are not compelling.
If Jones’s men are to win, they have to be much better than against the French. It promises to be close, but a sweet 16th win is within reach.