Sorry Nicola, but you just don’t hold the cards on Indyref round 2

That’s it then, lads. Run down the Union Flag and up with the white flag. Faced with the dread prospect of another independence referendum, a gloom is settling over Unionist scotland.

the Nationalists were only just subdued last time. Now they’re back and, armed with Brexit, certain to win. this year, Last Night of the Proms might be just that: Narrower still and narrower, Shall thy bounds be set. I’m not so sure. these are not times for reason: hyperbole is the new national mood and underreaction an admission of apathy. theresa May falls foul of a commentariat that demands blood, sweat and especially tears, preferably accompanied by a twitter hashtag and celebrity retweets.

she is rebuked for not scolding the Us president over an obnoxious policy. On Brexit, she is accused of dithering for failing to put her negotiating strategy on Facebook and branded callous for using EU nationals as a ‘bargaining chip’.

But scots who oppose the break-up of the UK have no greater friend than the Prime Minister’s stout sense of proportion. she is no poll-frit PR smoothie in terror of the next focus group. she is not, and no despatch box mimicry will make her, Margaret thatcher. to the extent this vicar’s daughter clings to any philosophy, it is the anglican injunction that we be ‘quietly governed’.

Outraged

that temperament will be tested if, as seems likely, the sNP demands a second referendum on independence in the coming months. No sooner had the ballot boxes been packed away in 2014 than the Nationalists were ratting on their ‘once in a generation’ promise. Brexit is the pretext they’ve been waiting for. Nicola sturgeon, a lifelong European since last June, is outraged that scots will be dragged out of the EU – not so outraged that she didn’t risk a similar outcome with her campaign for independence, of course.

It would be churlish, though, not to acknowledge that Brexit has made independence more appealing to some. the polls still point to a Unionist majority but even a small shift in public opinion could put the Nationalists over the line.

still, it is possible the separatists can be beaten again. this begins with Unionists rekindling their confidence. the UK is not the cruel dystopia gleefully described by the Nats. their true objection is not to the bits of Britain that don’t work but to the bits that do, where it presents a rival identity and source of belonging.

Well-meaning counsellors will remind Mrs May that the constitution is a reserved matter and the authority to hold a referendum lies solely with Parliament. this is true but the appearance of obstructionism will come with a heavy price.

the same goes for the wording of any referendum question. the Prime Minister should push for the ballot to reflect more closely the language of the EU plebiscite, with an unambiguous reference to leaving or remaining in the UK. Ultimately, though, the phrasing that will command greatest legitimacy is the one recommended by the Electoral Commission.

there is also much to learn from her predecessor’s mistakes. David Cameron was always semi-detached when it came to scotland, almost to the cost of the Union. as journalist Joe Pike records in his book Project Fear, a Cameron gaffe over timing allowed alex salmond to set the date, and the pace, of the 2014 referendum. this gave the Nationalists an incalculable advantage – and more than two years to wear down the voters with false promises and manufactured resentment.

this time, the UK Government should press for the referendum to be held within six months or once Brexit is complete. Proposing a vote in the next six months would mean the sNP leader would have to call a poll and risk losing or delay and sow seeds of discontent within her ranks.

the Prime Minister should defer in all matters to Ruth Davidson. the scottish Conservative leader has better political instincts than 20 spads, to say nothing of the clever-clevers at the treasury. she has a clearer read on strategy, a firmer grasp of the grammar of grievance that the UK Government will be up against.

a second referendum will be fought on fresh terms but the No campaign should remind voters of the 2014 White Paper and the shoddy prospectus it offered for building a new country: the $113 barrels of oil; the currency union that became the Panama Pound and then a currency union again; the assertions that scotland would inherit the UK’s membership of the EU; and the small matter of scotland spending £15billion more every year than it brings in.

these questions are outstanding, however much the Nationalists will want to make a second referendum about Brexit. Not that Unionists should shy from a debate on the EU, whose highest-ranking officials say scotland would have to apply for membership, with the threat of a spanish veto. that’s before we get to the sizeable anti-EU minority in the sNP itself.

Neglected

Europe is changing. the Europe of strasbourg ideals is morphing into the Europe of Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders. tory wide-boys and their benefit cuts aren’t terribly attractive but many scots would rather take their chances with austerity Britain than Nativist Europe.

that brings us to our final point, one that will scandalise the faithful but is too often neglected in compiling a case against the Nationalists.

Don’t be afraid to tell the truth about the sNP. the proposition at the heart of its politics remains the same: that the people we share these islands with, the people we have farmed and built and bled with, are ‘different’ from us, so much so that we must break our political ties, disentangle three centuries of history and withdraw into a separate state.

as part of the UK, scotland has benefited disproportionately in economic opportunity and cultural reach. But where the UK has given scotland a platform, the Nationalists see a millstone. In their glum world view, scotland can only get on by getting away from its nearest neighbours.

scotland is caught between the baleful dreams of two nationalisms; the victory of one need not secure the triumph of another. the first referendum probed our place in the UK and the complexities of departing. the second, when it comes, will be about what kind of people we are and what kind of country we want to be.