What May’s letter to EU REALLY means . . .
Theresa May’s six-page Article 50 letter contained vital clues to how Britain will approach negotiations with the EU.
Executive Political Editor JACK DOYLE examines what the Prime Minister said – and what she meant.
WHY WE ARE LEAVING
MAY: The people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. That decision was no rejection of the values we share as fellow Europeans. On the contrary, the UK wants the EU to succeed and prosper. We are leaving the EU, but we are not leaving Europe. WHAT SHE MEANS: The diplomatic equivalent of ‘It’s not you, it’s me’. Mrs May is trying – like a departing lover - to let the EU down gently. In future, she says, we want a ‘deep and special partnership’, a phrase she repeats seven times.
THE HISTORIC ANNOUNCEMENT
MAY: The UK Parliament confirmed the result of the referendum by voting with clear and convincing majorities in both of its Houses for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill. Today, therefore, I am writing to give effect to the democratic decision of the people of the United Kingdom. I hereby notify the European Council ... of the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the European Union. WHAT SHE MEANS: Formal notification of activating Article 50 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty that means Britain leaves on or before midnight on March 29, 2019.
TIMETABLING TALKS
MAY: It will be a challenge to reach such a comprehensive agreement within the two-year period set out in the treaty. But we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal. WHAT SHE MEANS: The EU insists the divorce deal, which includes any monies owed, must be agreed before anything else. Mrs May wants future arrangements – especially trade – discussed at the same time. Who will blink first?
WHY YOU NEED US
MAY: If we leave without an agreement the default position is that we would trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. In this kind of scenario, both the United Kingdom and the European Union would of course cope with the change, but it is not the outcome that either side should seek.
WHAT IT MEANS: We’ll walk away and you’re weaker without us. Designed to send a chill down the spines of EU leaders. Eleven times in her letter Mrs May 11 makes a reference to security. Officials insist co-operation on watch lists, air passenger information, DNA data and criminal records is at risk – but not wider intelligence sharing. Crucially, Mrs May is explicitly linking trade to security and spelling out how the EU will damage both prosperity AND imperil the safety of its citizens if Britain walks away.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
MAY: We will need to discuss a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state. WHAT SHE MEANS: A clear acknowledgment that money is on the table. EU negotiators will demand £50billion as compensation for the hole left in its budget by Britain’s departure and the cost of pensions and other liabilities, a figure UK ministers regard as laughable. Then there are future payments. Mrs May has ruled out contributing ‘huge sums’ but could cough up for specific programmes such as Europol, the police agency.
RIGHTS OF CITIZENS
MRS MAY: We should always put our citizens first... we should aim to strike an early agreement about their rights.
WHAT SHE MEANS: Mrs May wanted to settle the thorny issue of the rights of 3.2million EU citizens in the UK and the 1.2million British ex-pats in Europe before formal negotiations began, but was rebuffed by Angela Merkel. Now she is appealing to the remaining 27 members to come to an agreement swiftly.
FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT
MAY: We will continue to fulfil our responsibilities as a member state while we remain a member of the EU, and the legislation we propose will not come into effect until we leave. WHAT SHE MEANS: Until Britain formally exits the EU, free move- ment of migrants continues. New immigration rules for future EU migrants will come into force after we leave and will be be part of the negotiations.
AVOIDING A CLIFF EDGE
MAY: People and businesses... would benefit from implementation periods to adjust in a smooth and orderly way.
WHAT SHE MEANS: The deal could be phased in over time. Britain will leave in two years but aspects of any deal – such as immigration and customs – could come in gradually.
PACIFYING THE SCOTS
MAY: We will negotiate as one United Kingdom. We will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
WHAT SHE MEANS: More devolution for Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. The SNP are demanding powers over agriculture and fishing and Mrs May is keen to help to try to see off the threat of another referendum.
THE IRISH QUESTION
The Republic of Ireland is the only EU member state with a land border with the UK. We want to avoid a return to a hard
border. We also have an important responsibility to make sure nothing is done to jeopardise the peace process in Northern Ireland.
WHAT IT MEANS: One of the most sensitive aspects of Brexit: border controls between non-EU Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. It remains far from clear how trade and migration can be policed.
CHANNELLING CHURCHILL
MAY: The task before us is momentous but it should not be beyond us. After all... the leaders of the EU have succeeded in bringing together a continent blighted by war into a union of peaceful nations, and supported the transition of dictatorships to democracy. Together, I know we are capable of reaching an agreement about the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, while establishing a deep and special partnership. WHAT SHE MEANT: A unifying appeal to the post-war spirit of European peace and cooperation. While accepting the negotiations will be difficult, she recalls how Europe united after the Second World War and brought democracy to former Communist countries.