THE POWDERKEG

Who hates who and why in potentially explosive conf lict

Syria’S civil war has developed into a proxy conflict pitching Bashar al assad, who is supported by russia, iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, against mainly islamist rebels backed by Saudi arabia, Qatar and Turkey.

Throw into this mix the interests of the United States, Britain, iraq and israel, and to a greater or lesser degree other countries in the region, and it is easy to understand why it is being described both as a quagmire and a flashpoint. Donald Trump’s decision to fire Tomahawk missiles at Syria can be seen as a proportionate response to the crime of using chemical weapons, but it needs to be weighed against exacerbating other tensions.

Take Turkey. Once a friend of assad, its Sunni islamist president recep Tayyip Erodogan has become his most implacable foe because of assad’s suppression of Sunni rebels. But Mr Erdogan’s biggest worry is that Syrian Kurds will carve out a state along his southern border, perhaps combining with Kurds in iraq and Turkey.

The Syrian Kurds are the most effective fighters operating under US air cover against islamic State, but Mr Erdogan regards them as terrorists. another example is iraq where US forces are fighting islamic State alongside iranian-backed militias, who are russia’s allies.

For iran, assad is vital in sustaining Hezbollah, Tehran’s main tool to strike directly at israel. iran will fear further american airstrikes might embolden israel to hit Hezbollah bases being set up in Syria. Given these competing factors and factions, one must hope the US action was a one-off.

MICHAEL BURLEIGH