My heart and my head say we’ll do it by THREE points...
But this will go right to the wire
SO THE moment of truth is upon us as the attention of the rugby world lasers in on Eden Park this morning. The Lions can make history — and here’s why I believe they will.
SELECTION
I HAVE tried to envisage which special players can close this game out for the Lions. And every time I settle on the same two: Owen Farrell and Johnny Sexton.
I had them in my prospective Lions team over a year ago and in Wellington last week, we saw why it was my preferred option.
Playing two out-and-out footballers in these pivotal positions is key to winning at this elevated level and they can steer the Lions to one of the most famous wins in their history.
It makes no difference if it is dry or wet, if they are running, kicking or passing, going left or right, it’s all the same to them. They are exceptionally skilled and must be a dream to play with. In a frantic game they have the talent and experience to squeeze every advantage from the Lions’ possession.
New Zealand have made some fascinating attacking selections. The wonderfully gifted Jordie Barrett could light things up from full back, Israel Dagg is back on the wing while try-scoring machine Julian Savea returns. Those calls are a clear statement from Steve Hansen that he got it wrong last week.
It’s an immense back three but I still wonder about their inexperienced centre pairing of Ngani Laumape, winning just his second cap, and Anton Lienert-Brown, especially how they cope with Sexton, Farrell and the excellent Jonathan Davies. This is not a game for inexperience, and having called Malakai Fekitoa into the squad, I’m surprised he isn’t starting.
The Lions backs are beginning to click. They have outscored New Zealand four tries to three so far and these selections give them a distinct advantage. The fact they are going with an unchanged starting team is a huge statement. I also have so much faith in the Lions’ defensive system. Andy Farrell has got the basic organisation and line speed spot on and the big surprise of the series is how few try-scoring opportunities New Zealand have created.
THE REFEREE
THE Lions should be pleased Frenchman Romain Poite is officiating but they must be careful. They are well used to his refereeing style and his almost zero tolerance of any messing around at the scrum. They know he will penalise you, warn you and then yellow-card you if you don’t come up to scratch.
The All Blacks have won all nine Tests he has refereed while having skippers Richie McCaw and Kieran Read yellow-carded, so they know what to expect too. The Lions must be solid and visibly legal in the scrum. They must show Poite they are not the offenders, that they are the pack abiding by the laws.
There was lots of talk about Mako Vunipola (below) but retaining him in the team is the correct call. However, if there is a sign of any serious trouble at the scrum they must bring on replacements early. The same applies at the breakdown, where the Lions conceded too many penalties last week. That must stop. Fail to do so and they will lose the series.
They must also be ultradisciplined in terms of foul play and they will have been encouraged by the sending-off of Sonny Bill Williams.
The perception for years is that the All Blacks have been treated leniently compared with the rest of the world, but last week that all ended and was a seminal moment for rugby. Jerome Garces was decisive and brave and Poite is cut from the same cloth. He won’t hesitate to send off a player from either side so the Lions must be careful.
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
ONLY two players have captained two tours — Martin Johnson and Sam Warburton — and the fact the latter has a chance of becoming the only player to lead two successful campaigns speaks volumes. Even as he walked off last week after a famous win, you could tell he was focused on the challenge ahead. He refused to get caught up in the excitement and reminded me of Johnson. A man on a mission.
I never had any doubt Warburton should be captain here. Alun Wyn Jones, Rory Best and Dylan Hartley all had their supporters but it never occurred to me that Gatland would choose anybody other than Warburton.
Form is temporary, class is permanent and etched in my mind were two of the finest displays I have seen in a Lions jersey. During the first two Tests of the 2013 tour, Warburton was magnificent. Given decent fitness and form, Gatland was always going to ask him to lead his party and what an inspired choice that has proved.
Gatland knew Warburton’s importance as a player and captain but also spelt out that he would be picking the Test XV on form and wouldn’t hesitate to exclude him.
Warburton picked up a minor ankle injury on arrival which meant he wasn’t able to fully challenge for a starting role but rather than duck the issue, he took the steam out of it by admitting that the first Test could take place without him. He made it easy for Gatland.
I found that deeply impressive. There was no loss of respect within the group. And then when he returned last week, he was superb. Warburton is unquestionably one of those rare players who can perform at the very highest level off very little match practice. It’s an enviable talent.
R&R
I’M RELAXED about the Lions’ short trip to Queenstown after the second Test. It has perplexed a few New Zealanders as the All Blacks have gone diligently about their work in Auckland but this tour has been full on from the
moment they stepped off the plane. Massive games have come one after the other and it can be exhausting mentally as much as physically. A little break before the biggest game was no bad thing.
The Lions were right to seek calm before the storm. The visit had been planned months in advance and going ahead with it was a statement that they are on track. Selecting the same 23 reinforced that message.
That mental sharpness could even make the difference in reducing the penalty count. If the Lions lose, it certainly won’t be because a couple of the lads went bungee jumping or enjoyed a meal and a few drinks with family and partners.
Gatland has trusted this party from the off and I don’t get the impression they have been on a tight leash. Win, lose or draw Gatland has done a brilliant job on this toughest of all sporting assignments.
HAPPY SQUAD
THIS is clearly a settled squad that is still developing and improving. I read a statistic which shows Gatland will have used only 26 players in his matchday 23 over the Test series, the lowest number on a Lions tour in the professional era.
He has enjoyed good luck with injuries and consistent selection, allowing him to build continuity. The momentum will be with the Lions and, unusually, it is New Zealand who are scrambling.
The All Blacks have selected a very positive attacking team. We all know what’s coming, and it could be spectacular, but I believe we haven’t seen the best of the Lions yet. They are saving it for when they need it most.
PREDICTION
THE teams are pretty evenly matched. I would pick five Lions in my World XV — Tadhg Furlong, Maro Itoje, Warburton, Sexton and Farrell and you could make a case for Sean O’Brien and Conor Murray as well. The All Blacks have five equivalent players in my opinion — Brodie Retallick, Jerome Kaino, Read, Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett.
This match will show whether the dismissal of Sonny Bill was the moment the Lions smashed the aura of the All Blacks or whether it just allowed a team with 15 to edge past them by three points.
I believe it to be the former. This will go to the wire and, hopefully, it will be 15 v 15 for the entire match so there can be no caveats. My heart and head says Lions by three.