Ticking ‘timebomb’ as population ages

Care crisis fear as OAP numbers set to soar by 28pc

SCOTLAND is set for a demographic timebomb with the number of pensioners set to increase by nearly a third in the next 25 years.

The country’s ageing population will also see the number of deaths from dementia continue to soar.

Fears have been raised that the health and social care system will not be able to cope with the challenges ahead following years of ‘neglect’ by SNP ministers.

According to the Scotland’s Population report, published by National Records of Scotland yesterday, the number of pensioners is set to soar by 28 per cent by 2042 – while there will be a rise of only 1 per cent in the working age population.

The report also confirmed Scotland’s population reached a record high of 5,404,700 last year. The rise was down to immigration, with 40,400 people coming to Scotland from overseas and only 17,500 leaving. The number of births in Scotland dropped by 1 per cent to 54,488, as did the number of deaths with 56,728 in 2016.

In the next two decades the 75 years and above age group is projected to increase by around 85 per cent, from 430,000 in 2014 to 800,000 in 2039. It is predicted the 65 to 74 age group will rise from 540,000 in 2014 to around 680,000 by 2039.

Tory health spokesman Miles Briggs said: ‘Scotland’s population has been ageing for some time, but this has been utterly neglected by the SNP.

‘There’s going to be a heavily increasing elderly population north of the Border, who risk being served by an NHS which won’t be remotely equipped to provide the help they need.’

The number dying from Alzheimer’s and dementia soared from 2,013 in 2000 to 5,571 in 2016, and now accounts for 10 per cent of all deaths.

The report states: ‘Deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease have more than doubled since 2000 and have now overtaken deaths from cerebrovascular disease.

‘This is partly because people are living longer, and fewer are dying from other conditions such as circulatory diseases.’

Tim Ellis, Registrar General of Scotland, said the ageing of the population ‘has implications for funding allocations, tax revenues, pensions education, health and social care provision’.

Brexit minister Mike Russell said: ‘We absolutely need to ensure we grow our working age population now and in the future, when we expect more people to live longer beyond retirement. Scotland benefits from inward flow of people... a hard Brexit, with restrictions on free movement, would be a major threat to our economy.’

MORE than 230 babies were stillborn in Scotland last year – a rise of 12 per cent since 2015. The Scotland’s Population report also revealed a 3 per cent rise in the number of infant deaths, classed as those babies who die within their first year. There were 236 stillbirths in 2016, with 181 infant deaths.

The report states: ‘In 2016 the stillbirth rate (4.3 per 1,000 live and still births) and the infant rate (3.3 per 1,000 live births) were, despite a slight increase on the 2015 levels, very low in historic terms.’

Janet Scott, from the charity Sands, said it would be ‘a worry’ if the increase in stillbirths continued. ‘Utterly neglected by the SNP’