SO WHAT ARE THE MILITARY OPTIONS?

OPTION 1: A LIMITED STRIKE In 1994, President Clinton considered using strategic bombers to attack North Korea’s nuclear facilities before an atomic weapon could be produced. Then, as now, the US had a range of airbases in South Korea, Japan and Guam from which to strike, with B1 bombers and cruise missiles plus its fleet of nuclear aircraft carriers, each with more attack planes than the entire RAF. Clinton decided against military action because of fears North Korea’s huge ground force would wreak havoc across the South Korean border. A major war would be needed to defeat it.

Today, North Korea is far better prepared to survive even a severe air attack by the US. Its nuclear forces are not sitting ducks. It has repeatedly deployed mobile launchers so it can move and hide missiles. The newer North Korean solidfuelled missiles can also be launched much more quickly than the older liquid-fuelled rockets. These developments make neutralising Kim’s atomic warheads by a massive airstrike far from fool-proof. 2: FULL-SCALE INVASION The US military routed the North Koreans in the first Korean War, but the US had many more troops and landing craft at its disposal. The US navy facilitated the D-Day style landing on the coast behind the North Korean Army, trapping it in the South. North Korea has no navy to speak of to protect its coastline, and it’s tempting to imagine US Marines pouring ashore and marching to Pyongyang, just as they did in October 1950. But this time the North Korean army – illequipped but vast in size – would be waiting. To win quickly and decisively the US would require the bulk of its military man power to be deployed to Korea. But Washington has other problems, from Afghanistan to Syria. War in Korea would tie down the army and marines – unless South Korea’s 650,000 troops also took part. However, South Korea is reluctant to engage in a pre-emptive war that would threaten Seoul and other cities with destruction from the North.

Then there is China. It is vehemently hostile to the US THAAD missile defence system that has recently been deployed in South Korea. Beijing’s fear is the real target of any US military action in the region is ultimately China. To act without being sure of Chinese neutrality runs the risk of a wider and far more perilous conflict – World War III in all probability.

Even if China was ready to accept the fall of Kim’s regime, a conventional invasion would not be quick enough to prevent Kim launching some kind of nuclear strike, as well as firing off his stockpile of chemical and biological weapons.

The North has as many as 60 nuclear bombs, according to US intelligence. If only a couple were successfully launched at South