His year written off, will we ever see Andy regain his full powers?
THERE is one school of thought in tennis which says that for every month a player is absent from the tour, it takes that long for him or her to get back to the level they were before.
Going by that admittedly unscientific rule of thumb — to which Roger Federer has recently proved a rare exception — we will not see Andy Murray return to somewhere near his best until at least next summer’s Wimbledon.
In fact, it remains entirely possible we will not see him regain his full powers at all.
The now deposed world No 1 announced yesterday that he is almost certain to sit out the rest of the season with the intention of coming back in early January at the Brisbane International, prior to the first Grand Slam of 2018.
Murray has signed a promotional deal with Tennis Australia to play either Brisbane or the Hopman Cup in Perth for the next three years, which gives cause for optimism that he is thinking long term about his career.
It also represents the ditching of the unfathomable decision to start the current season in Qatar, which improved his bank balance but meant he arrived late at Melbourne for the opening major.
Contrary to some expectations, the 30-year-old Scot made no mention of having surgery to try and fix an apparently degenerative hip condition.
The problem became evident during his build-up to the SW19 fortnight and sometimes saw him hobbling around like a man twice his age.
The absence of any operation should not be taken as outright good news, because he has not given detail about exactly what the problem is — which is entirely his prerogative.
What is known is that he has consulted far and wide about what to do and was spotted in New York last weekend.
He had apparently returned to America from his Surrey home to see another specialist, although his management company would not confirm this.
So far Murray has gone down the route of rest and rehabilitation and from his Wimbledon exit onwards he was working hard in the gym to try and improve his condition.
In the lead-up to the US Open, which he fervently wanted to play in, there was not much sign that a huge amount of progress had been made — although that does not mean that three months of more of the same will not pay off.
If he manages to come back on schedule, his ranking will be down to around No 17, its lowest point since 2008, as a huge number of points from last autumn will have dropped away.
Expectations about next season should be tempered, if his experience in 2014 is anything to go by.
In September 2013 he had a surgical procedure on his back and came back the following January.
It was not until May’s Italian and French Opens that he really started to look his old self.
And only late in that season did he go on a successful tear around Europe to qualify for the year-end finals in London.
Of course, he is also three years older now and has added a huge amount of mileage to the clock since then.
Murray’s playing style requires a lot of hard grind and running — he is not a Federer, but then who is? — and this is inevitably going to take its toll on the body.
On the positive side, there is no indication of any existential crisis of the kind that Novak Djokovic appears to have suffered, questioning whether he wants to make all the sacrifices necessary to perform at the stratospheric level required to win Grand Slams.
Fellow Briton and former US Open finalist Greg Rusedski said: ‘Let’s hope it’s not too serious and he doesn’t need surgery for it because it would be great to have Andy Murray back, especially with what he’s done in his career and how well he’s played over the last few years.
‘Federer was out of the top 16 seeds when he started the Australian Open this year, so I wouldn’t worry about where the seeding is.
‘If Murray is healthy, he will get himself back to the top of men’s tennis.’
Murray himself was adamant in yesterday’s statement: ‘Although this has been a frustrating year on court for many reasons, I’m confident after this extended period of rest and rehabilitation that I will be able to reach my best level again and be competing for Grand Slam titles next season.’
It is not as if the next generation of Britons has dominantly emerged in the past three years on the back of his unprecedented success.
Murray confirmed yesterday that his charity exhibition event in which he will play Federer in Glasgow at the SSE Hydro on November 7 will go ahead.
He will also be around for the final stages of wife Kim’s pregnancy, with their second child said to be due in late October.