This may keep the Cabinet together but where was the beef, Theresa?
THERESA MAY is famous for taking time to reach decisions, which is often no bad thing in a Prime Minister. But my word, she’s been taking an inordinate amount of time to reveal her thinking on Brexit.
To be frank, she’s appeared to dither, which is why so much depended on her speech yesterday in Florence — a city chosen as the backdrop for its rich history as a centre of European commerce and culture rather than for its other claim to fame as the home of the Italian diplomat and arch cynic Machiavelli.
In my view, we’re still not entirely clear where we stand.
Over the past few weeks, Mrs May’s Cabinet has been convulsed by a furious and at times brutal struggle between the hard and the soft Brexiteers.
Crucially, most heavyweight cabinet ministers campaigned for Remain. The most powerful of these are Chancellor Philip Hammond, Home Secretary Amber Rudd and Deputy Prime Minister Damian Green.
Only a few weeks ago, it seemed that the three soft Brexiteers had secured victory and Britain was on course for soft Brexit.
Then Boris Johnson struck with publication of his ‘Brexit manifesto’ in The Telegraph one week ago, followed by reports that he would resign if Hammond et al got their way.
Though Mr Johnson was scathingly criticised by many, the Foreign Secretary made an honourable stand on what is beyond doubt the most momentous issue of our time. He set an example which other lesser politicans would do well to follow.
But amid the chaos, the predicament of the Prime Minister has, at times, resembled that of a soldier stranded in a crater in No Man’s Land, with howitzer shells flying over her head.
In recent days, Mrs May has reasserted her authority with strong performances in Canada and New York, and has forced her Cabinet to put their disagreements to one side in a display of unity.
Florence was her opportunity to state absolutely Britain’s position and put her stamp on Brexit negotiations that lie ahead.
There were welcome elements in the speech and some of her arguments were admirable.
SHE made it clear that Britain is offering a real deal to the European Union and that this was a genuine effort to break the recent deadlock in negotiations with workable arrangements — a fact acknowledged by the chief negotiatior, Michel Barnier, who described Mrs May’s speech as ‘constructive’.
In practical terms, linking the cessation of Britain’s financial contributions to the EU to the end of 2019 — which marks the end of the seven-year EU accounting period — is eminently sensible.
It instantly soothes nerves in Brussels where the prospect of a black hole in the budget was triggering panic. Poor Eastern European member states will receive no less money, while Germany and France will not have to dig deeper in their pockets between now and Britain’s departure.
There were essential assurances that Britain and Europe would maintain and strengthen security cooperation, putting paid to earlier threats that we would use our world-renowned intelligence expertise as a bargaining tool in negotiations.
And the Prime Minister repeated assurances to European nationals here that they would be able to remain during the transitional period and beyond.
She rightly called Europe ‘our strongest partner and friend’.
Above all, there was moral strength to her words and a key theme was fairness.
Mrs May emphasised that we would honour our existing commitments to the EU. She suggested that Britain’s relationship with Europe could, paradoxically, be even stronger outside the EU. No sane person would disagree with any of this. Britain is not declaring war on Europe: we are simply leaving the EU.
Yet for all the upbeat rhetoric about Britain’s role in the world and the detail about transitional arrangements and budgets, this was a speech that was pragmatic rather than visionary.
It was carefully crafted to appeal to the warring members of her Cabinet, and most of all to keep her Foreign Secretary on board.
No surprise, then, that Boris Johnson hailed the speech as ‘positive, optimistic and dynamic’.
But in essentials, it is something of a fudge.
I fear Mrs May is still finding it almost impossible to choose between the clashing personalities in her Cabinet and their diamatrically opposed proposals for handling Brexit.
What the Prime Minister has done with this speech is buy time.
She has kept her Cabinet together — and in that sense she has been politically skilful. So much so that in ordinary political times we might applaud Theresa May’s canniness.
Normally such procrastination would not matter. But in this case it matters very much. Less than 18 months remain until Britain automatically leaves the European Union.
The stark reality is that there are two negotiations ongoing over Brexit.
The first is the angry argument inside the Conservative Party about what Britain should look like after Brexit. The second is that with Michel Barnier.
The problem is that Theresa May cannot properly negotiate with Mr Barnier until she has worked out what kind of Brexit she really wants.
Yesterday’s speech was essentially a compromise between two contradictory positions of hard and soft Brexit.
Eighteen months before Britain exits the European Union, that is nowhere near enough.