COACH GRAY KNOWS THE ALL BLACKS ARE NOT INVINCIBLE
SCOTLAND may have never beaten New Zealand, but there are at least some from these shores who have savoured such a special moment.
Sir Ian McGeechan, of course, tasted victory over the Kiwis as a coach with the Lions in 1993, but he is not the only Scotsman who knows what it feels like to put one over on them.
Richie Gray, of Galashiels, was part of the South African coaching staff that secured a famous 27-25 victory over the All Blacks at Ellis Park in the 2014 Rugby Championship.
It was an historic moment as it brought to an end their 22-match unbeaten run, which had stretched over two years.
Gray went on to be one of Vern Cotter’s specialist coaches with Scotland before leaving to join him at Montpellier in the summer.
Now, in an exclusive scouting report for Sportsmail, he looks at what it would take for Scotland to finally beat the All Blacks.
ATTACK
Scotland cannot go out there with a conservative gameplan. They have to go all out to take the play to the All Blacks.
The challenge that comes with that mindset is that they can’t afford to make too many mistakes through playing such a high-tempo, attacking game. If they do, New Zealand will make them pay.
They can’t allow themselves to be sucked into a loose offloading game all the time and must pick their time to attack. They mustn’t force it. Rather, try to stay calm.
Even against the All Blacks, chances will be created — but they must be capitalised on. This Scotland team’s big strength is that they can play some exciting rugby. They are good at retaining possession and they have some players who can make something out of nothing.
DEFENCE
our transitional defence must be spot-on. If we are turned over at any point, we must shut down the New Zealand counter-attack immediately as that is when they are at their most dangerous.
If Scotland are turned over in midfield, they must force New Zealand out to an edge of the pitch immediately so they can reset and get their defensive structures in place.
If they are turned over in the wide channels, they must cut off the danger of the two or three wide passes which moves the attack across the field and creates space for the All Blacks to attack from a different position.
In such situations, Scotland must keep an eye on key New Zealand players like Kieran Read, who will drop back into the wide channels and create extra numbers and mismatches.
Scotland cannot afford to switch off at any time through the 80 minutes. They have to be aware of quick taps and quick throw-ins.
New Zealand will always look to increase the tempo of the game just when you least expect it.
KICKING
We must be accurate in our exit strategy. There will be times over the 80 minutes when we are going to have to relieve pressure.
An exit plan should be about putting pressure back on to the opposition immediately — not just breathing a sigh of relief that you have cleared your lines.
If the strategy is to kick for touch, then make sure the ball ends up in the 10th row of the stand so it takes away the opportunity of a counter from a quick line-out.
The problem you have with kicking to touch is New Zealand then get the line-out and you are back to defending a set-piece again.
Depending on how things are going, Scotland will maybe have to change tactics and will have to be brave and create a strategy to play out of their exit area instead of kicking.
SET-PIECE
The All Black scrum and line-out have always been a major strength, especially their defensive line-out. They always seem to have the ability to steal the throw that is really needed at the key time in the game. Scotland must be alert, especially 5-10 metres out from their own line. Defending there, they must be ready for the unexpected, a ploy, round the front or a shift to change the area of attack.
BREAKDOWN
The breakdown does not automatically win you the game in itself, but it will go a long way to deciding the outcome.
You cannot let the All Blacks settle at any point within the game and the breakdown is the key area to upset their rhythm.
The breakdown is a numbers game and the key is how accurate you can be with minimum numbers.
In attack, if you have to commit
extra numbers to retain your own ball, New Zealand will recognise that and attack the third or fourth phase, knowing you are down numerically as you have committed too many in your first and second phase
They are one of the best sides in the world at taking you apart on turnover ball.
DEFENSIVE BREAKDOWN
This will be the most important area of the game for scotland.
New Zealand are going to have the ball and scotland quite simply must get it back.
it will be a big day for our recognised stealers, but they must be smart and should not go about throwing themselves into lost causes.
Remember, the opposition are trying to get the scottish defence to commit numbers, so it has to be out-and-out control and accuracy within this area to stop their momentum.
The second man in the tackle has to affect the speed of retention and stop all offloads. if New Zealand get their hands free in the tackle they will achieve line-breaks. scotland must look to have as many men on their feet in defence as possible.
ATTACKING BREAKDOWN
scotland must get some real momentum into their attacking rucks, which then asks questions of the New Zealand defence as they are having to retreat and it takes away that vital line-speed. if you end up carrying into a black wall of defenders for 80 minutes, it will be incredibly difficult to get on the front foot to attack and will result in you losing shape, which then increases the possibility of you being turned over.
so you must have a mix within your attacking breakdown strategy. Get fast ball, play it off the deck, pick and go through the middle to ask questions of their defence. Keep the New Zealanders guessing.
DISCIPLINE
if you go a man down at this level of Test match rugby, it can kill you. Discipline will be key for 80 minutes — don’t dive into lost causes. You can’t give away needless penalties and allow the All Blacks to just continually reapply pressure.
This is a game that scotland cannot afford to get any cards in. Lose a player for 10 minutes in the bin at this level and, depending on what position, you could be looking at a 10-14 point swing.
FOCUS
New Zealand can switch on to absolute concentration when it is really needed, where other teams relax or allow their focus to wander.
They have had an outstanding continuity in selection, which has allowed them to build a very simple but effective gameplan. They are a well-oiled machine.
Within the 80 minutes at Murrayfield, they will throw in two or three plays you have not seen before. They always have a Plan B, a line-out move or phase play or a set-piece attacking move that you will not have planned for.
They pride themselves on their individual skill level, especially when fatigued. They do the basics brilliantly under pressure.
SCOTLAND’S CHANCES
Can scotland beat New Zealand? i have always coached with the belief that every team is beatable. if i did not think like that, there would be no point in preparing a team to go out and play.
When you play New Zealand, you must individually and collectively prepare yourself to leave everything out on the field. You must outwork them for 80 minutes.
And you must also have a few surprises for them, just like they will have for you.
The All Blacks will have done all the analysis on scotland, as scotland will have done on them, but we must show them something they did not expect or plan for.
The last point in a game like this is that scotland must get the 50/50 decisions from the referee. That can make a big difference.