Welcome to the Ashes of the great unknowns...

IT was not the most auspicious start when Engl a n d arrived in australia for this ashes tour. The i nterviewer bounded up to alastair Cook at Perth airport. ‘James…’ he began.

and if the locals don’t remember the man who batted for 36 hours and 11 minutes at an average of 127.6 on the 2010-11 tour, what chance have they got with the likes of Mark stoneman and James Vince?

about as much recall as all but the tragics back home will have for Cameron Bancroft or Tim Paine, named in australia’s line-up.

Yet these are the figures that could turn this most historic of sporting encounters. It could all boil down to them: the journeymen, the first-timers, the last names on the team-sheet, the players selectors would have agonised over long into the night before deciding.

How many conversations resulted in the decision to pick australian wicketkeeper Paine, for instance, considering he wasn’t even the No 1 choice for Tasmania at the start of this season? How many times have England rewritten and revised their top order on paper this last year?

Yesterday, The Australian newspaper attempted to introduce ‘unknown England’ to its public as it counted down to the first Test at the Gabba. There was not even a mention of Jake Ball, whose recovery from an ankle injury means he is likely to play ahead of Craig Overton in England’s attack.

It comes to something when what is unknown doesn’t just stop at a list of unknowns, much like Donald Rumsfeld’s summing-up of american policy in Iraq. ‘There are known knowns,’ he said. ‘There are things we know we know. we also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’

we hear you, Donald. England’s ashes XI is pretty much like that. and australia’s, too.

For what if a player like Bancroft, on his Test debut, transpires to be the perfect foil for David warner and australia’s openers turn the series?

what if the sprinkling of gun players cancel each other out, meaning the Tests are decided by a breakout star, a name few had imagined taking centre stage? Bancroft or Usman Khawaja; Vince or Dawid Malan? If one or two players rise to the occasion unexpectedly, in a series as tight as this, it could be the tipping point. we all remember shane warne and Glenn McGrath and, in the best teams, the most gifted players are often the difference. But when superiority is less clearly defined? ask andrew strauss about Peter siddle’s contribution to aussie supremacy, or the way stuart Clark could tie up one end for six overs and build the tension. It isn’t always about the household names.

This is not, let’s face it, a classic ashes match-up. There are precious few great players in either team, and one of the best is sitting at home awaiting a call from his lawyers.

Down here, they see Ben stokes’ arrival as imminent, part of another cunning Pommie plot, but the reality is that even if the Crown Prosecution service do not detain him this winter, in all likelihood the ECB will.

so the ashes is down at least one marquee name, and maybe more by the end, given the fitness issues that have plagued some of australia’s bowlers. all are available for the first Test, but what condition they will be in as the tour moves deep into December is another matter. The supporting cast, players not yet on the team- sheet, could still have a huge role.

England and australia’s best bowlers look well matched. One conceives of games in which Mitchell starc and Josh Hazlewood get big wickets early, and the same goes for James anderson and stuart Broad, certainly when favoured by the conditions in the day-night second Test in adelaide.

That applies equally to warner and steve smith against Cook and Joe Root. all possess the quality to take the game away from the opposition by scoring heavily.

so what is left? The nuances, the many tiny battles that take place away from the primary focus.

Can Moeen ali match Nathan Lyon as a spinner? Can Chris woakes and the rest of England’s tail be as resilient as australia’s?

Might Malan be better suited to australian wickets than imagined? what if the unheralded Paine is a rival for Jonny Bairstow with the bat?

That alone could change the entire dynamic of the series. Pat Cummins was australia’s fast-bowling prodigy, making his Test debut at 18, in what was his fourth first-class match. He is 24 now, and has played just five Tests due to a succession of injuries including a stress fracture in his back.

There were more than five years and three months between his most recent Test appearances.

Cummins is fast and could be as much of a threat to England as Mitchell Johnson was on the last tour. But can he stay fit? again, we cannot know.

It is the imponderables rather than the quality that contains the fascination on this tour. The intrigue is in the sub-plots, in the possibility that a game-changer will emerge, as a youthful Michael Vaughan did on a previous ashes tour, as stokes did even in heavy defeat the last time.

The series could be transformed by an individual whose name means little now, but could have been elevated to heroic status come sydney in January. stoneman, perhaps, if he finally solves England’s second-opener conundrum. This could be his moment.

Then again, it could be anyone’s moment. That is the joy of this series. It’s the unknown unknowns that could make this ashes the tightest of all.