Q&A
Why have the talks hit a brick wall?
The issue of what to do about the Ireland/Northern Ireland border after Brexit has reared its head again. Last December, both sides agreed there should be a ‘backstop’ or fall-back agreement to ensure there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the South, and to protect the Good Friday Agreement. Theresa May told the House yesterday there had been ‘real progress’ in the talks in recent weeks but on the backstop the two sides appear as far apart as ever.
What does the European Union want?
The EU has argued that the backstop must be specific to Northern Ireland, which would stay in the EU’s customs union and parts of the single market, while Great Britain went its own way. This would apply from the end of the transition period at the end of 2020 until the point at which a whole UK-EU trading arrangement is struck.
What does No 10 want?
Mrs May has proposed a backstop which applies to the whole of the UK. Until a future trading arrangement was agreed, both Great Britain and Northern Ireland would stay within certain elements of the EU’s customs arrangements. Mrs May stressed this would be for a temporary period and not a ‘permanent limbo’, although there will be no specific date contained within the Withdrawal Agreement.
What happened on Sunday?
The EU demanded a ‘backstop to the backstop’. While agreeing that in principle the UK-wide backstop could apply, Brussels said there was not time to agree all the details in time to sign the Withdrawal Agreement. As a result, they said, their original proposal of a Northern Ireland only solution should also be in place. In truth, they just reverted to their original position, and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab pulled the plug on the talks.
Why won’t Theresa May agree to the EU’s demands?
An avowed unionist, Mrs May has insisted anything which ‘threatens the integrity of the UK’ will not fly, and that includes customs checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea. Parliament has also voted, in the Trade Bill, to ban Northern Ireland becoming part of a separate customs territory to the rest of the UK. The Democratic Unionist Party, on whom Mrs May relies for her majority, have said customs and regulatory checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain are a ‘blood-red line’ and even threatened to vote down the Budget if they think the Prime Minister is making too many compromises.
What happens next?
Mrs May travels to Brussels on Wednesday afternoon for dinner with the other 27 member states, in a last-ditch attempt to hammer out a deal that she – and Parliament – is prepared to swallow. If the two sides cannot bridge the gap, they’re heading for no deal.