Old flames fuel EU’s woes

EUROPE is hot right now, it’s fair to say. the French are on red alert for another outbreak of rioting planned for this weekend by the ‘gilets jaunes’, named after the yellow high-vis jackets that French drivers have to carry with them.

Up to 89,000 police officers will be on duty around the country, with 8,000 armed police in Paris alone.

tanks have been brought into the capital. tourist sites and restaurants have been told to shut amid fears that the protests will turn ugly.

it’s easy to be sceptical about the violence in France, to say that the French habit of protesting is as much part of their culture as its fine cuisine and couture.

Yet this time the public’s fury, fuelled by President Emmanuel Macron’s economic reforms, looks deeply menacing, particularly if the protests are being whipped up, as has been suggested, by activists on both the far Right and far Left.

Privately, political pundits have already given the movement thrown up by the ‘gilets jaunes’ a more dangerous description: the Jacquerie. it’s the name given to the insurrection of peasants against the nobility in north-eastern France in 1358 during the hundred Years’ War, and one which was violently repressed.

the rebels were branded the Jacquerie because of the way the nobles condescendingly described any peasant either as Jacques or Jacques Bonhomme.

that the Jacquerie moniker has been resurrected to depict these events shows how frightened the establishment is.

Like the peasants’ revolt, the latest outburst was also triggered by higher taxes. then it was land taxes. this time it is Macron’s hike on fuel tax to help fund his carbon-free green programme.

Protesters are also furious the president has repealed the wealth tax on the richest citizens – one of his many moves to entice City bankers over the Channel because of Brexit. But even risk-loving bankers might prefer the perils of Brexit to the sight of burning cars and police in full riot gear. as they say, Macron should be careful what he wishes for.

So far he refuses to back down on the wealth tax, another stick with which he is branded the ‘president of the rich’. Paradoxically, Macron introduced these tax measures, along with other labour reforms, to break union power and liberate the economy, to drive France’s growth. that ambition has become besides the point.

MaCRON’S view of a grander Europe, and his drive to build up the Franco-German axis, has also added to the mounting anger of the rural poor. they see his ‘grand projet’ as yet another symbol of how the European Union works for the ruling class and not them.

Further south, discontent is brewing again in italy. Rome’s coalition government is still banging heads with Brussels over its budget, which, in an unprecedented move, was rejected by the EU. By all accounts, Brussels reckons the italian government will submit eventually to its request to cut the deficit and toe the line.

But that’s not the message coming out of Rome, where the mood is uncompromising. Both the Five Star Movement and the League have made promises to increase standards of living and cut taxes.

the Five Star wants a minimum income for the poorer south while the League wants tax cuts for business in the north, with both of the measures to be funded by the proposed budget increase which the EU is forbidding.

ironically, despite the EU rhetoric, the budget deficit is not italy’s biggest problem. Most worrying is the rising cost of the italian debt, which stands at a huge 130pc of GDP. if bond yields go up much more, the italians will not be able to afford to service their debt and will be locked out of new fund-raising.

italy is in an invidious position, and one which the EU should be doing its best to resolve if it is to avoid another financial crisis which would spread like wildfire, as most European banks have a pile of italian debt on their books. When the European Central Bank stops its bond-buying programme, due to happen next year, investors will get spooked and sparks will fly.

add together events unfolding in France, italy and in the UK next week with the critical Brexit vote, and this must surely be the moment when the EU accepts it needs to head to Specsavers for a new prescription.

ALEX BRUMMER IS AWAY