Scottish Daily Mail

So, what will happen next?

- by Jack Doyle

NO CONFIDENCE MOTION

Labour last night tabled a no confidence motion, with a vote expected at 7pm today. If the Government loses and no leader can win the support of the House within 14 days, then a general election will be held – but the motion is unlikely to pass. Tory rebels who oppose Mrs May’s deal would still be expected to back her, while the DUP last night confirmed they would support the Prime Minister.

BACK TO BRUSSELS

The vast majority of Tory rebels – and the DUP – voted against the deal due to concerns over the Northern Ireland backstop. Mrs May had accepted that Monday’s assurances from JeanClaude Juncker and Donald Tusk on the issue did not go far enough. German foreign minister Heiko Maas yesterday raised the prospect of ‘further talks’ if the deal was rejected, and there were rumours Mrs May would return to Brussels to seek further assurances.

REACHING OUT TO LABOUR

After the vote Mrs May said she would hold meetings with Tory MPs, the DUP and ‘senior Parliament­arians from across the House’ to find out what changes could be made to win them round. She also pledged to ‘explore them with the EU’. However, she stopped short of suggesting formal talks with Jeremy Corbyn and putting a customs union on the table, as some Cabinet ministers have urged her to do. Speaking to Mr Corbyn would spark a furious backlash from MPs, ministers and grassroots Tories.

PARLIAMENT TAKES CONTROL

Tory ex-minister Nick Boles has drawn up a bill to seize power over Brexit from the Government and hand it to the Remain-dominated liaison committee of MPs. It would require Speaker John Bercow to tear up the rules of the House – which last night he hinted he could. This would likely lead to a Norway-style Brexit, keeping us in the customs union and single market. But, the liaison committee must be convinced that they even want this responsibi­lity.

NO DEAL

Highly unlikely in the short term. Mrs May has made her opposition clear and has some time to organise a second vote with new assurances from Brussels. If she doesn’t succeed, Tory Remainers will do everything to stop ‘no deal’ – even if that means a general election.

2ND REFERENDUM

Dominic Grieve has drawn up a Bill which would force a second referendum, choosing between Mrs May’s deal and staying in. Mr Bercow would have to fly against the rules for it to go to a vote – and for Article 50 to be delayed. If it came before the House, there’s little prospect a majority of MPs would back it.

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