THE CRUMBLING DYNASTY
Accusations of smears. Whispers of vendettas. Backstabbing briefings and furious outbursts. As the fallout from the Sturgeon-Salmond split grows ever more toxic, the battle lines over the future of the SNP are being drawn by Michael Blackley
IT was a side of Nicola Sturgeon that her top team of advisers rarely see. Monday started like any other day inside the austere headquarters of the Scottish Government at St Andrew’s House in Edinburgh, as a civil servant handed the First Minister her early morning ‘news digest’ summarising the stories in the media that day.
On a normal day, that provokes little more than gentle discussions with her ‘inner circle’ about how to react to any developing stories.
In the case of more negative or problematic articles, she will often set off her top attack dogs – led by chief of staff Liz Lloyd, a confrontational Geordie who is Miss Sturgeon’s loudest defender – to dispute the story and try to ensure no other media, particularly the BBC or the Press Association news agency, decide to follow it up.
But on this occasion, Miss Sturgeon flew off the handle.
The source of her anger was not solely the fact that two newspapers had carried stories with fresh allegations about her dealings with Alex Salmond. What really hurt her was that the stories appeared to have been briefed directly from her mentor’s team.
Fingers were immediately pointed at a former SNP adviser who was once a friend of the Scottish Government.
Fearing that her mentor had turned on her and was actively trying to bring her down, Miss Sturgeon declared war by signing off an unprecedented early morning statement dismissing the claims and accusing Mr Salmond’s team of trying to ‘smear’ her.
Ironically, it was the type of reaction many of the special advisers had not seen since Mr Salmond’s reign. He regularly used to explode when confronted by negative newspaper headlines. But it is far more rare for their current boss to express that type of anger in front of them.
It was the beginning of a series of events which, if proof were needed, showed that the 30-year friendship between Miss Sturgeon and Mr Salmond was over.
SOME in the party even admit that the explosive row between the two heavyweights of the Nationalist movement is threatening to tear their party apart.
Many now openly concede that the murky affair has left Miss Sturgeon’s job on the line and are talking about who her successor might be.
Privately, some in the Government also worry about losing their grip on Scottish politics at the next election – and dread the prospect of one coming along before 2021.
Miss Sturgeon had hoped she could move on from what had been her worst week as First Minister.
She believed that referring herself to the independent advisers on the ministerial code of conduct for an investigation last Sunday would buy her some time and end the daily onslaught of negative media coverage.
But the questions kept coming and the fact that Mr Salmond appeared to be adding to them enraged her.
On Tuesday, more revelations emerged, as Mr Salmond’s former chief of staff, Geoff Aberdein – a personal friend and former colleague of Miss Lloyd, and who now works in the private sector for Standard Life Aberdeen – claimed she had told him she ‘suspected’ there had been a complaint about Mr Salmond in late March last year.
This is significant. Miss Sturgeon previously insisted she first learned about the complaints at a meeting with Mr Salmond in her home near Glasgow on April 2.
She had also said the meeting was arranged only because Mr Salmond had something to tell her relating to party business.
If Miss Lloyd knew that Mr Salmond intended to discuss the allegations by government employees, which he denies, why didn’t her boss?
Mr Aberdein also revealed new details of a meeting between Mr Salmond and Miss Sturgeon.
He accompanied the former First Minister to the talks – at Miss Sturgeon’s modest home in a middle-class housing estate in Lanarkshire – along with former MSP Duncan Hamilton, Mr Salmond’s lawyer. But he said the three of them were left alone after the pleasantries and small talk was out of the way, with Miss Sturgeon and Mr Salmond talking privately in another part of the house, which features a reading room filled with books, a compact kitchen fitted with a £1,000 coffee machine and a comfortable living room with a colourful floral feature wall straight out of a new-build home brochure.
It remains unclear where Miss Sturgeon’s husband, SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, was during this meeting in his home – although the First Minister insists he was not present and was not informed about what was discussed.
The latest revelations from Mr Aberdein caused more angst for Miss Sturgeon’s team.
At a media briefing on Tuesday, her top special adviser, Stuart Nicolson, who is known for his aggressive and combative spats with journalists, appeared bruised and tired, particularly since questions were now focusing on his friend, Miss Lloyd.
While he refused to dispute the version of events provided by Mr Aberdein, a personal friend who shares his love of Aberdeen Football Club, Mr Nicolson accused Mr Salmond’s aides – whom he notably referred to as the other ‘side’ – of a ‘vendetta’ against Miss Lloyd, citing a reference in an opinion piece by a political journalist suggesting that Mr Salmond is ‘looking for blood’ and that Miss Lloyd is ‘ominously high on his wanted list’.
But the strongly worded attacks angered some within the party who think it plays into the hands of their opponents and makes it impossible to make the party look united.
One senior SNP politician said: ‘You’ve got people in the party showing clear sympathies to either party.
PEOPLE brand this an SNP civil war and I’m not interested in that. But the First Minister’s focus should be on independence – she shouldn’t be involved in any tit-for-tat and the people working for her shouldn’t be getting involved in that. It does not come across well.
‘Alex’s side have not really been engaging in that, they’ve been pretty tight.
‘To use words like smear... we really need to be reflecting on the competence of the people around her.’
When Miss Sturgeon chaired a meeting of her Cabinet at St Andrew’s House on Tuesday,
she made only brief reference to the fact there is an ongoing police investigation into complaints about Mr Salmond and that she had referred herself for investigation – but there was no ‘substantive’ discussion of the matter.
None of her ministers felt brave enough to ask questions about the impact this is having on the party or the Government.
Miss Sturgeon looked tired and bad-tempered when she attempted to get away from the issue and focus on Brexit on Wednesday – but still faced questions about Mr Salmond during a Sky News interview, during which she confirmed that their 30-year friendship is now in doubt.
One minister admitted to this being a low point for the party and said that an early general election or an early Holyrood vote called as a result of failing to pass the Budget would cause serious problems. The minister said: ‘This would not be a good time for us to face an election.’
While playing it down publicly, Nationalist politicians admit there is now little doubt that this is the biggest crisis facing the SNP since it first came to power in 2007.
They see multiple threats facing Miss Sturgeon.
She could be found guilty of wrongdoing over the details she provided about her secret meetings with Mr Salmond over the Scottish Government’s investigation.
Secondly, the growing civil war could tear apart the SNP, splitting it into the Left-wing progressive Sturgeonites and the agitated dissenting voices of the Salmondistas.
Thirdly, she is dealing with a huge intake of new members who are now growing increasingly agitated about a second independence referendum that she does not want to call because she does not currently expect to win.
OPPONENTS smell blood and they think the upcoming parliamentary inquiry – at which they will be able to ask any questions they like in public and demand the publication of key government and party documents – will be the most problematic probe facing Miss Sturgeon.
SNP politicians are instantly prickly when any reference is made to a ‘civil war’.
They are not used to in-fighting and think that it should not happen when all members of the party share the ultimate goal of independence.
But given the back-stabbing and secret briefings going on, they privately admit there can be no doubt it now exists.
In addition, Miss Sturgeon is also at risk of losing the support of those who signed up to the SNP with the sole objective of demanding a second independence referendum – a group which includes some MPs and MSPs and is becoming increasingly restless.
Some in the party think Miss Sturgeon has lost the tight grip Mr Salmond previously had, and are alarmed by a clear breakdown in discipline – although they cite that as inevitable when the number of members and elected politicians has gone through the roof.
‘There are now a lot of different people from different backgrounds with different views,’ one SNP politician said. ‘It is now not so easy to keep people in line.
‘It’s the same situation in parliament – from six MPs to 56 and now 35. People have grown their own independence.
‘Before, we had people who were part of a team with one leader. Now, there’s lots of personalities. In 2011 it was a team vision but now there’s a much larger team of people with different beliefs.’
Jim Sillars, a former deputy leader, has railed against the rise of the dominance of the party leader under both Mr Salmond and Miss Sturgeon – and believes it has left the party light on options for a successor.
He said: ‘There is a rift in the party and that is happening because we have developed the cult of two personalities over the years.
‘When they fall out, two cults are almost duty-bound to fight each other and that is what we see going on now.
‘People like me have been saying for some time that this is only going to end in tears.’
Mr Sillars said that Mr Salmond first started taking an aggressive approach to critics in the party in the early 1990s and, since then, the leader – first Mr Salmond and then Miss Sturgeon, has dominated all decision-making.
‘After that, you went into the cult of personality and that was transferred to Sturgeon,’ he said.
‘The leadership have total control of the party and that’s the state we’ve been in for years.
‘It has led to a personality-driven situation which has culminated in two sides falling out – it’s been years in the making.’ Notably, some in the party are now discussing who is in line to replace Miss Sturgeon if she is forced out, or resigns in the wake of the findings of any of the ongoing inquiries.
Some believe Brexit Secretary Mike Russell is an option, although he has previously been sacked as education secretary and many think his rumbustious style of politics would be a major turn-off for voters.
Others cite Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, although she has never escaped the fact she used to be a card-carrying Communist and, at the age of 65, would be seen as only a short-term option.
Beyond that, all fingers point to Finance Secretary Derek Mackay, a man who appears to have been working to improve his image and delivery style.
One senior Nationalist said: ‘Derek Mackay is the obvious heir apparent in terms of his experience, the different strands of government he’s worked in, he’s moved up through the ranks.
‘He is in the position John Swinney was in, so I think he would be the natural person if John Swinney is not going to put himself forward again.’
BUT would he want to go for the job, since he has suggested privately he is not interested? The source said: ‘Everyone gets into politics because they want to be leader at some point.’
Inside the SNP, they do not know what lies ahead for Miss Sturgeon and Mr Salmond.
Much of it depends on the outcome of the police investigation and the multiple inquiries.
Mr Salmond has made it clear to friends that, if cleared of criminal activity, he would consider a return to politics.
And one source in the party said that ‘a lot of people would want him back’ – but admitted that might be problematic for Miss Sturgeon.
Her own reputation may already have been tarnished beyond recovery and the Tories now think she is a big asset to them because she is so unpopular on the doorsteps.
Discontent is also growing within the party.
For the first time since 2007, some SNP members admit it could be in freefall.
Mr Sillars said: ‘She has not handled it well at all. Her judgment is in serious doubt.
‘She can’t possibly lead the party into the next election, whether that’s Holyrood or Westminster.
‘But such is the state of the SNP in terms of membership loyalty and the cult of personality that I think I would be in a minority on that.’
He added: ‘We are heading for trouble and the party membership don’t realise it – they are in a state of denial. The alarm bells should be ringing.’