WILL WE BE IN LIMBO FOR 20 MONTHS?
After Bercow’s shock intervention sinks chances of PM sealing EU deal this week...
THERESA May will be forced to ask the EU for a long delay to Brexit after John Bercow yesterday wrecked her chances of getting her deal passed this week.
MPs voted overwhelmingly last week to instruct the PM to ask Brussels for an extension to the two-year Article 50 process.
Mrs May had said a short technical delay until June 30, giving enough time to pass necessary legislation, would be possible if her deal is passed before March 29.
But if MPs do not back it, there would have to be a much longer extension – delaying Brexit for up to 20 months – requiring the UK to take part in European Parliament elections in May. After Commons Speaker Mr Bercow yesterday ruled the PM could not bring her deal back the Commons unchanged, Downing Street sources last night said it was ‘very unlikely’ a vote on it would be held this week.
Instead they said Mrs May will write to EU leaders ahead of a Brussels summit on Thursday requesting a lengthy delay. Some Brexiteers yesterday rejoiced at Mr Bercow’s decision, believing it has actually increased the chances of a No Deal Brexit because MPs will not stomach a prolonged extension.
In a sign of their optimism, one group of Eurosceptics was even heard whistling the Great Escape theme in the Commons tea room.
But if the EU agrees to offer the Prime Minister an extension, it is unlikely to be turned down by a Commons that voted against a No Deal departure.
It means MPs now face a showdown next week – the last before March 29 – when they are likely to be asked to vote on Mrs May’s deal again if she win the Speaker’s permission, and if that fails, on the offer of a delay. It means that although the referendum was almost 1,000 days ago, Britain’s future will go right down to the wire.
Last night, sources suggested Mrs May could try to seek a ‘break clause’ in any delay she negotiates at the European Council this week. That could potentially allow the UK to leave early – before the European Parliament elections – if MPs have a change of heart and approve her deal.
If that attempt is unsuccessful, Britain faces up to 20 months in the EU while a new plan is negotiated.
However, some Brexiteers are convinced that when presented with this prospect next week, the Commons may yet decline to formally approve a delay – and that Britain will leave on time with no agreement. Mark Francois, deputy chairman of the European Research Group of hard-Brexit MPs, told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme: ‘The legal position is that unless something changes, under the EU Withdrawal Act that Parliament passed last summer, we leave on March 29 at 11pm. That has not changed.’
Mr Francois suggested No Deal could happen if the EU refuses to give an extension to Article 50.
He added: ‘All 27 nations must agree unanimously. I am not saying for definite that they won’t, but it is not axiomatic that they will. So it is a moot point and we will have to wait and see.’
Former Tory Cabinet minister Owen Paterson said Mr Bercow’s decision was a ‘huge opportunity’ for those who want the country to leave with No Deal.
He told BBC Radio 5 Live: ‘If the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be put to the Commons again, we must leave the EU on March 29 as the law demands. That has huge support across the country, that would satisfy the 17.4million people who voted to Leave, it would satisfy all those Conservative voters who were promised that we would leave the single market, the customs, the remit of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and it would put real pressure on the EU to come to discussions on a free trade deal.’
He added: ‘I think there is a lot of Project Fear nonsense about a so-called No Deal. We have already got lots of side agreements on aviation, airplanes, trucks.
‘I think what would happen is that it would trigger a really positive construction discussion.’
If an extension is agreed by the EU, Mrs May will have to bring it back before MPs just days before the country is due to leave the EU on Friday. Downing Street sources said they wanted it to include an exit clause the country can leave early if the Brexit deal is somehow passed by Parliament.
Mrs May had planned to hold a third vote on her Brexit deal this week and had been hopeful she could win around the DUP, which are seen as pivotal because of their influence on Tory Brexiteers. Leading Tory Eurosceptic Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday said he would wait to see what the DUP decided before finally making up his mind which way to vote if the deal returns to the Commons.
However, last night sources said there was no chance of a breakthrough this week in talks with the DUP. MPs last Thursday backed the Prime Minister’s reluctant call to delay Brexit by 413 votes to 202. It came a day after they backed taking No Deal off the table by 321 votes to 278.
Whistling the Great Escape theme tune