Secret dossier’s 14 claims of chaos
1. LEAVING ON OCTOBER 31
THE Halloween departure date from the EU is not ‘to our advantage’, the Yellowhammer document states. It falls on a Thursday, meaning banks could be forced to make changes overnight, rather than over a weekend.
Friday meanwhile, marks the end of the half-term holidays for some schools so families will be returning from abroad, adding to traffic at border crossings.
2. CHANNEL PORTS
SIGNIFICANT disruption at ports could last for up to three months after a No Deal. The document reveals up to 85 per cent of lorries travelling through main Channel crossings ‘may not be ready’ for French customs.
It states that in a ‘reasonable worstcase scenario’, the disruption could leave heavy goods vehicles facing delays of 1.5 to 2.5 days, affecting perishable goods such as foods and some medicines. France has said it will impose mandatory EU controls on the first day of No Deal.
3. DRUGS AND DISEASE
THE supply of medicines to the UK could be badly disrupted, the document states. It adds that it will ‘not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months’. Diabetes sufferers and children with cancer are among those who could be affected. It could also harder ‘to prevent and control disease outbreak’.
4. FOOD AND WATER
THE documents warn that consumers will be hit with food shortages and price rises. Under No Deal the supply of fresh food will ‘decrease’ and supermarket shelves will have gaps.
The biggest risk is a breakdown in the supply chain of the chemicals used to treat water, which could affect ‘up to hundreds of thousands’ of people.
The documents says lowincome groups will be ‘disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel’.
5. FINANCIAL SERVICES
THE document states ‘some UK cross-border financial services will be disrupted’. Banks and other institutions will have to switch to new systems for reporting transactions midweek. The City will also have to deal with dramatic shifts in the price of Sterling and other assets.
6. OUR DATA
THE digital economy which sees consumers buying and selling goods on websites is underpinned by EU regulations on personal data. As no decision has been made yet on the handling of this data, the document says it ‘could take years’ to re-establish a relationship. Experts warn the scenario could result in a ‘data cliff edge’. The disruption could also affect bank transfers and stop data flow from the EU to Britain.
7. PETROL SUPPLIES
TWO British oil refineries could be ‘inadvertently’ put out of business by government plans to set most import tariffs at zero per cent after a No Deal. This could lead to around 2,000 job losses and could also spark widespread strikes and disruptions to fuel availability in some areas for up to two weeks.
8. NORTHERN IRELAND
MEASURES to avoid a hard border in the event of No Deal are likely to prove ‘unsustainable’, the document says. It states there will be ‘no new checks with limited exceptions’ on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
But it goes on to say that although measures will be introduced to ‘avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side’, this is ‘likely to prove unsustainable because of significant economic, legal and biosecurity risks and no effective mitigations to address this will be available’.
9. ENERGY SUPPLIES
CONSUMERS in Northern Ireland face ‘significant’ energy price hikes, the document warns. A rapid ‘split’ in the single electricity market – put in place after the Good Friday agreement – could occur ‘months or years’ after Brexit and result in ‘significant electricity and price increases for consumers’.
10. GIBRALTAR
THE supply of goods, including food, medicine and the shipment of waste will be disputed by the ‘imposition of checks at Gibraltar’s border with Spain.
If the UK leaves without a deal, the 15,000 workers who cross the border from Spain each day to work in Gibraltar can expect a delay of more than four hours for ‘at least a few months’. Prolonged delays ‘are likely to adversely impact Gibraltar’s economy’, the document adds.
11. BRITS IN EUROPE
EMBASSIES across the EU will be inundated with demands for help by confused nationals living on the continent.
There will be ‘an increase in consular inquiries, with more complex and time-consuming consular assistant cases for vulnerable UK nationals’, the leaked document states.
12. PROTESTS AND POLICE
VIOLENT protests could break out in the event of No Deal, the Yellowhammer document warns.
There ‘may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions’ as civilians deal with the shock of a No Deal departure. Police chiefs have spent months drawing up contingency plans to respond to such unrest.
13. FISHING
EU fishing boats could illegally sail into UK waters, causing clashes at sea and disruption at ports. Nearly 300 foreign boats would be fishing in British waters on day one.
This would be ‘likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector’, with risk of smuggling and border violations, the document states.
14. SOCIAL CARE
OUR already ‘fragile’ social care system would be hit hard by rising costs, the document warns. In a damning assessment, it says an increase in inflation could lead to providers starting to go bust by the New Year.
It states that smaller care providers could start to feel the impact within two to three months, while larger firms would be affected four to six months down the line.