House of cards that Nicola built could come tumbling around her
THE foundations of the house of cards on which the SNP’s electoral success has been built were laid just over 15 years ago in an upmarket steakhouse.
The SNP had just suffered a European election collapse which forced out its leader, John Swinney, who blamed the ‘loose and dangerous talk of a few’ in a party riven with divisions.
Nicola Sturgeon had put herself forward as a leadership candidate and had been prepared to battle with Roseanna Cunningham but, over dinner with Alex Salmond at the Champany Inn in Linlithgow on July 15, 2004, she agreed to step aside and let her mentor throw in his hat to run in the race.
The rest is history. He went on to win convincingly and stamped his authority on the party, instilled the strictest levels of discipline to end the damaging infighting, brought a broad coalition of views together under the central defining mission of securing independence and ultimately led the SNP into power for the first time just three years later.
When Mr Salmond fell on his sword after the decisive No vote in the 2014 independence referendum, Miss Sturgeon was finally able to take on the job. Although she initially enjoyed success, the storm clouds are now gathering and the troops have become restless.
With deep divisions starting to open up within the party and also the wider pro-independence movement, it has left some privately fearing she is sliding down the same slippery slope that spelled the end for Mr Swinney all these years ago.
‘It’s become a shadow of the party Alex Salmond built,’ says one SNP politician, while another former business supporter said: ‘Alex was an economist, Nicola is a socialist. She has completely destroyed what got the SNP to power in the first place.’
Collapse
The upcoming trial of Mr Salmond is likely to blow these tensions into the open, leaving Miss Sturgeon facing a battle to save her job – and her party facing the threat of another collapse.
Miss Sturgeon’s critics first started to find their voice shortly after complaints about Mr Salmond became public knowledge. Party treasurer Colin Beattie donated to Mr Salmond’s crowdfunding campaign to pay for his legal battle against Miss Sturgeon’s government, while MP Angus MacNeil gave public backing for the fundraiser and others privately expressed support.
But the initial trickle of dissent has snowballed, and Miss Sturgeon seems unable to halt it. Members of the party who used to be so on-message now express their frustrations with the leadership openly – while Miss Sturgeon also comes under fire from the nationalist commentariat who used to be so slavishly supportive.
The biggest issue that divides the SNP’s supporters is the one that used to unite them – independence.
While Miss Sturgeon has not yet made a specific demand for the section 30 order needed to hold an independence referendum, some of those in her party, led by National Executive Committee member Chris McEleny and Mr MacNeil, have grown frustrated and want the party’s conference to debate a madcap ‘plan B’ of declaring independence if it wins a majority of seats at the next general election – despite the obvious democratic and legal flaws of that position.
There are also concerns about the SNP’s currency plans and proposals for tackling the deficit an independent Scotland would face.
These internal independence agitators are being encouraged by the commentators who used to paint Miss Sturgeon as the party’s heroine.
Controversial Wings Over Scotland blogger Stuart Campbell’s opinions still matter to some elements of the SNP. He now openly questions whether it can have the electoral success needed to make independence a reality.
He says the party is a ‘shambles’ and ‘doesn’t know what it is doing’. He has even begun plans for a new pro-independence party to stand against the SNP in the next Holyrood elections. It used to be that he vehemently attacked critics of the SNP. Now he seems to have joined them.
He is far from alone. Nationalist commentator Lesley Riddoch – who has never shied away from gushingly proSturgeon prose – condemned her ‘talk to the hand’ approach in an article last week for proindependence organ The National.
She concluded that, in the event of an independence referendum not being held by the next Holyrood election in 2021, ‘all bets are off’, and that a ‘significant number’ will desert the SNP and start looking elsewhere for ‘fresh leadership’. Similarly, Kevin McKenna, one of the commentators enticed to support independence when the SNP was led by Mr Salmond, admitted he could vote for a new Wings party.
In a damning critique of the SNP at Holyrood, he wrote: ‘Very few of the SNP’s current Holyrood contingent possess the knowledge required to defend effectively their political position under even the mildest of inquiries.’
Smears
It is not just those using the pages of a newspaper set up to support the case for independence that are attacking Miss Sturgeon’s leadership, however. It is even coming from within her own party – and her ministerial team.
Ministers Kate Forbes and Ash Denham and former Salmond aide Joan McAlpine wrote an open letter condemning her approach on gender recognition for the trans community.
MP Joanna Cherry was also quick to blame the leadership when she and her office manager faced bullying allegations – which she branded ‘politically-motivated smears’ aimed at her because she was seen as a future leader.
Then there are the business figures that Mr Salmond tried so hard to win over to the proindependence cause. Figures released recently show that the SNP has received less cash from donations than in any year for a decade.
Whatever happened to former SNP donor Brian Souter? Businessman John McGlynn, who regards Finance Secretary Derek Mackay as a friend and previously backed independence, has been one of the most vocal critics of the party’s plans to introduce a ‘regressive’ tax on workplace parking.
Financier Peter de Vink has accused Miss Sturgeon’s ‘socialist’ tax plans and ‘laughable’ economic policies of damaging the case for independence. Even billionaire former independence backer Jim McColl, still a member of the First Minister’s Council of Economic Advisers, last week condemned the SNP’s economic strategy.
All of this criticism is out in the open. Even bigger dangers for Miss Sturgeon are lurking in the shadows. Factions at all levels of the party, mostly previous supporters of Mr Salmond, are being formed.
They are disgruntled at the approach to independence but also a range of policy issues. They are waiting for the trigger to form a full-scale rebellion. It all has striking parallels to the ‘loose and dangerous talk of the few’ Mr Swinney spoke of in 2004.
Ironically, Alex Salmond – having instilled the phenomenal discipline within the SNP – could be the trigger for the rebellion to escalate. All eyes will be on his court trial next year. A parliamentary inquiry will assess how Miss Sturgeon and her advisers acted in relation to complaints.
It has the potential to bring the house of cards she helped build over the last 15 years crashing down around her – and could take her with it.