Beware Biggar and ghosts of 2015
Fly-half Dan may kill off England’s hopes again if neighbours fail to top their respective pools in Japan
CHRIS FOY
ENGLAND and Wales need to avoid each other for as long as possible now. That is the most important lesson to take from their World Cup warm-up doubleheader, which concluded in Cardiff on Saturday.
With the global hierarchy in a state of flux, everyone is searching for clues about what this month’s phoney war results mean in the bigger picture as a form guide for the World Cup.
The short answer is they don’t mean much, but one thing is quite clear — the cross-border foes who locked horns under a roof in the Welsh capital would be best advised to dodge another indoor encounter in the southern Japanese city of Oita. That is where they could well find themselves on the weekend of October 20-21, for the World Cup quarter-finals. It would surely suit Eddie Jones’ and Warren Gatland’s teams to be kept apart.
The last eight is too soon for another high-stakes instalment of this rivalry, for all the partisan passion it would generate.
England’s victory at Twickenham and Wales’ win in Cardiff lacked the resonance of Six Nations results, but nonetheless provided certain pointers.
One is that when any Red Rose team operates at a fervent peak of intensity, their power can be mighty hard for their neighbours to repel. The other is that Dan Biggar is a canny conductor who contributed to England’s World Cup demise four years ago and is capable of repeating that feat.
These old enemies will know that the best solution to the threat they pose to each other, is to defer the day when it must be addressed.
The answer is to finish top of difficult World Cup pools.
England will expect to trump Tonga, the United States and struggling Argentina before a showdown against France in Yokohama on October 12 to determine whether they qualify for the knock-out phase in first place or second.
Unless Fiji cause a series of upsets in Pool D, England will go to Oita to face Wales or Australia. They won’t admit it, but they’d rather be lining up against the Wallabies, who they have beaten six times out of six under head coach Jones.
Australia suffered a backlash on Saturday in Auckland, having had the temerity to thrash the All Blacks seven days earlier. Their 36-0 capitulation at Eden Park suggests that despite recent signs of a revival, Michael Cheika’s side remain brittle when the heat is on.
Jones made that point in the aftermath of his team’s defeat. ‘I watched that game with great interest,’ he said of the Bledisloe Cup mis-match. ‘Psychology was reversed. Australia, last week, had everything to play for. They were free. They were tough.
‘They played aggressively. This week they had to cope with expectation. The story of the week was that the All Blacks in Auckland are unbeatable. You’ve got to be able to cope with that and they struggled.’
Jones was also in amateur psychology mode when he responded to Wales’ elevation to No 1 in the world rankings: ‘They’re favourites for the World Cup so they have to cope with that.’
Jones knows that’s not true. Gatland knows that’s not true. Even the most ardent Welsh fans know that is not true.
New Zealand remain the benchmark and the tournament favourites. The All Blacks last lost to Wales in 1953. If the two current teams played each other ten times, one Welsh victory would still be greeted as an
at the Principality Stadium
upset, whatever the rankings say. But there is no escaping that Wales and other nations have closed the gap on the winners of the last two World Cups. Kiwi aura has been eroded.
Japan should stage a classic tournament. England and Wales can challenge strongly. They are both capable of reaching the semi-finals, at least, if they avoid each other in Oita.
Despite the majesty of France’s 32-3 win over Scotland in Nice on Saturday, Gatland, given the choice, would surely prefer a quarter-final against Jacques Brunel’s erratic side rather than Jones’ team.
Wales will go to the Far East without Taulupe Faletau and Gareth Anscombe, but Biggar is a masterful deputy at No 10 and captain Alun Wyn Jones continues to excel as a freakishly relentless and influential figure.
As England’s third-quarter revival ground to a halt on Saturday, the lock forward’s contribution was a major factor. England’s maul, such a potent weapon at Twickenham, was nullified this time.
They were beaten on the floor and will welcome back specialist opensides, Tom Curry and Sam Underhill, who are expected to be fit for the home fixture against Ireland on Saturday.
Yet again, Jones’s team gave away needless penalties, which foiled a second-half comeback. But he will take comfort from knowing that several key men are being re-integrated, including captain Owen Farrell, Jamie George and Manu Tuilagi.
Anthony Watson looks sharp after a long injury lay-off.
His assurance under the high ball means England should consider switching him to full back, with Elliot Daly on the wing.
Wales are more settled than their neighbours but for the best of British contenders, World Cup hopes would be enhanced by going their separate ways.