STUMPED...BY THE MOST BASIC OF ECONOMICS

THERE are many powerful arguments against the case for Scotland breaking away from the rest of the UK. They range from the emotional to the practical – from a wish not to make foreigners of our friends and family to valuing the very pound in our pockets.

Since the 2014 referendum, the SNP has made absolutely no progress in many of these areas.

The independence movement has failed miserably to chuck out its extreme elements, who continue to berate and abuse people who disagree with them and who unfurl anti-English banners at organised parades.

The Nationalists have also failed to answer key questions, such as what currency a separate Scotland would use, how we would defend ourselves against an array of varying threats, and to which international organisations we would be able to gain membership.

But as yesterday’s Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures revealed, it is the most basic economic arguments which continue to stump the SNP – and reaffirm the value of Scotland’s place within the UK.

So long as these differences remain as stark as they do, it is an argument Nicola Sturgeon cannot, and will not, win. Scottish voters are simply too switched on.

Amid the sometimes complex financial data were alarmingly simple messages.

Scotland generates considerably less in taxation than it receives in the form of public spending.

In 2018-19, Scotland raised £62.7billion in tax. But in that same period, we spent £75.3billion on public spending – in areas such as health, education and some welfare. That leaves a gap of £12.6billion – 7 per cent of GDP.

NOW, because Scotland is part of the UK, that deficit can be managed and the impact of it absorbed comfortably. This is when the often-mentioned ‘broad shoulders’ of the United Kingdom, which can pool and share resources, come into play and prove their worth.

But had Miss Sturgeon and Alex Salmond had their way in 2014, Scotland would now be a separate state, with no obvious way of filling this gap except by eye-watering tax rises, the slashing of public services, casino-style borrowing – or a combination of all three.

Yesterday, when challenged on these dreadful numbers, Finance Secretary Derek Mackay desperately suggested some alternatives: to default on any loans that would be due to Westminster, and to radically reduce defence spending.

So in the SNP’s eyes, Scotland would not just be a high-tax, low-wage economy where hospitals and schools contend for pitiful funding settlements and people wait weeks for their bins to be collected.

It would also be defenceless, and earning a global reputation for not repaying loans.

And, of course, the thousands directly and indirectly employed at Faslane would almost immediately be out of work, along with military personnel in other parts of the country.

Then there is the question of the EU. Since the 2016 vote, the

SNP has used Brexit to try to engineer another independence referendum. But such an aggressive pro-European stance was misjudged, costing them seats in council and Westminster elections and alienating a million Scots (including hundreds of thousands of SNP supporters) who wanted to leave the EU.

The hypocrisy of this stance is breathtaking, since an independent Scotland would have been hauled out of the EU instantly and would have faced a lengthy wait to get back in.

Were that application to be successful, there is no way Brussels would tolerate a deficit level of 7 per cent.

Even the most broke European country, Cyprus, has a deficit of only 4.8 per cent.

The EU would demand that, as well as joining the euro, Scotland cut its deficit to 3 per cent.

In short, the bombshell statistics spell bad news for Scotland’s economy now, and for almost every scenario under which the SNP would have us live after independence.

Any responsible Scottish Government would look at the GERS report and be thankful for our partnership with the rest of the UK. After all, as a result of the Union, Scots are able to receive £13,854 per head in public spending – against the UK average of £12,193.

It is increasingly clear that a Scotland ripped out of the UK by a rash SNP movement fuelled by grievance would not be able to sustain such a level.

Threatening independence is only going to harm Scotland’s economy, causing uncertainty for businesses and division for families and communities. The First Minister must take the prospect of a second referendum off the table. This would allow Scotland to come back together again, after years of consecutive votes, campaigns, and constitutional turbulence.

Crucially, it would also provide certainty and stability for business and the wider economy.

Perhaps the Scottish Government could aim to close the gap with the rest of the UK, and for Scotland to contribute more to the pot – a move that would strengthen jobs and opportunities north of the Border.

Then hard-working Scots would not have to read every year that they are £2,000 per head better off than every man, woman and child in England.

BUT none of that would fulfil the SNP’s political ambitions. It is not in its interests for Scotland to thrive in the UK. It needs failure and chaos to persuade people to take a leap of faith.

Miss Sturgeon chose to travel to Shetland on party business rather than stay in Edinburgh on such a critical day.

Given this report blew another hole in her bid for independence, it is easy to see why.

■ Donald Cameron is the Scottish Tory policy co-ordinator.