GPs could use weather to predict how busy they will be

THE weather, the football World Cup and prominent news stories all affect the number of patients booking GP appointments in a day, research suggests.

Authors say their data could help dozens of practices manage resources and staffing to ensure that high-quality primary care continues to be provided amid rising demand.

Figures were obtained from the Clarendon Lodge Medical Practice in Leamington Spa from September 2017 to September 2018, alongside Met Office weather data, major health stories and sporting dates from the BBC website. The surgery, with around 13,500 patients, reported that 44,885 appointments were booked during the period – 180 a day on average.

On World Cup match days, there was a significant decrease in demand, suggesting many ‘will prioritise watching the game’. Demand fell 16 per cent on days England was playing. Snowy weather also saw a 16 per cent reduced demand.

The study also found that news stories ‘greatly affected’ the number of appointments booked, particularly reports relating to cancer, mental health and paediatrics. On days cancer stories were published, uptake increased by 9 per cent.

The practice is now using the data to predict when demand is likely to peak. They adjust staffing levels accordingly.

The practice is also taking part in a ‘GP Direct’ scheme south of the Border, which sees patients given same-day phone consultations followed by appointments in person if necessary later that day.

‘Many will prioritise football’