CHILLING TOLL OF VIRUS OUTBREAK
++ 80pc of Scots could get disease ++ Up to 250,000 face being hospitalised ++ War on outbreak to last months ++
SCOTLAND is braced for the rapid spread of coro- navirus, with millions expected to be infected by the deadly bug. According to the latest planning by the scottish Government, the worst case scenario could see up to 250,000 people hospitalised, with 80 per cent of the country’s population falling ill. The outbreak in scotland is expected to peak over the next two to three months, according to a briefing by First Minister Nicola sturgeon, Health secretary Jeane Freeman and Chief Medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood yesterday.
It followed confirmation of scotland’s first case of CoViD-19, in tayside.
Testing is being carried out among friends and family of the patient, who became ill following a trip to italy, where there is a major outbreak.
The ramping up of emergency containment measures comes as:
▪ Boris Johnson warned the spread of the virus is likely to become ‘more significant’ in the coming days;
▪Scotland’s Chief Medical officer
warned one in five patients could become seriously ill with the disease;
▪Tens of thousands of holidaymakers had their plans thrown into doubt after British Airways, easyJet and Ryanair cancelled hundreds of flights;
▪ A Cobra meeting thrashed out a ‘battle plan’, details of which are to be published today;
▪ Four new cases – among people from Hertfordshire, south Devon and Kent who had recently visited Italy – were announced;
▪ Experts said the outbreak is likely to last up to three months, when it is expected to peak;
▪ The Prime Minister urged people to wash their hands frequently, while singing Happy Birthday twice.
Mr Johnson said a battle plan would be in place ‘if and when it starts to spread, as I’m afraid it looks likely it will’. His Government, he added, is in a position to take the steps necessary to contain the disease, such as banning mass gatherings.
‘The most important thing for people to understand is that [measures] will be guided by scientific advice,’ Mr Johnson said. ‘All four nations of the UK and the chief medical officers are involved in this and they will be helping us to take key decisions on when and how to take protective steps.
‘The single most useful thing we can all do to support the NHS is to wash our hands, two times to Happy Birthday, with hot water.
‘It’s very important that people should continue [doing] that and they should go about business as usual.’
Legislation allowing the use of extra powers to help control the virus is expected to go through Parliament this month. Measures could include asking retired doctors and nurses to return to the NHS, urging people to work from home, closing schools and cancelling large public events.
In a statement, the First Minister said the Scottish Government is ‘planning for the likelihood of a significant outbreak of coronavirus’.
The Scot diagnosed with the virus is ‘not seriously ill at this stage’, Miss Sturgeon added.
The Tayside resident, who had recently travelled from the north of Italy, has been hospitalised as a precautionary measure and is receiving treatment in isolation.
‘That is not necessarily going to be the case going forward for future cases,’ Miss Sturgeon said, explaining people will be told to self-isolate at home unless they are so unwell they need to be in hospital.
Her briefing came after she took part in the UK Government’s Cobra meeting.
Scotland is in the ‘containment phase’ where measures are aimed at limiting the spread. But the situation is under ‘ongoing review’ and is soon expected to move to a ‘delay’ stage where large-scale events may be cancelled.
The Scotland v France Six Nations game is still scheduled to take place in Edinburgh this weekend.
Cobra ‘signed off on a fournation action plan’ to guide the response to the virus, Miss Sturgeon said. ‘The public should be reassured there are well-established procedures and protocols in place.’
Dr Calderwood said: ‘If there is a spread which becomes sustained in this country, we would not expect a peak until another two to three months.
‘The evidence we have at the moment is mostly based on China. We are expecting perhaps 50 per cent or as much as 80 per cent would be infected in that epidemic.
‘Around 80 per cent of those infected would have a cough or mild flu and fully recover and be able to return to work within ten days.’
But up to 250,000 would need to be hospitalised over a period of months. ‘This may not happen, this is theoretical,’ Dr Calderwood added.
Miss Sturgeon said: ‘We are dealing with reasonable worst case predictions. We are not saying all of this will come to pass but the public would want to know we are preparing.’ In terms of how the health service would cope, she said: ‘We are not planning to build temporary facilities at this stage. We are planning for how the NHS flexes its capacity.’
A total of 815 people in Scotland have been tested, with one confirmed case.
Miss Freeman said: ‘NHS Scotland has a clear resilience plan. Exactly how we flex that plan is informed by scientific and clinical advice. Boards have their own plans and we have asked them to begin to stand those up and work them through, for example procurement demand and capacity, such as elective procedures.’
Globally, around 86,000 people have been infected, with more than 3,000 deaths.
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