WHAT PLANET ARE THEY ON?

SNP minister branded ‘deluded’ for claiming official figures showing Scotland’s deficit would be biggest in Europe actually MAKE the case for independence

FINANCE Secretary Kate Forbes was branded ‘deluded’ yesterday after claiming the eye-watering size of Scotland’s economic deficit made the case for independence.

It followed an official report from the scottish Government showing that the country would be £15billion in the red if it split from the UK.

The shortfall – worth 8.6 per cent of scotland’s economic output – would leave the country with the biggest deficit in europe.

economists warned the scale of the deficit between how much scotland spends and what it raises will more than triple once the full impact of the Covid crisis is factored in.

But Miss Forbes said the figures show the Union is ‘unsustainable’ – despite huge sums of money flowing north from Westminster.

she claimed an independent scotland would be able to extend the furlough scheme. she also suggested ‘economic growth’ would bring down the deficit without public service cuts.

But Labour’s shadow scottish secretary Ian Murray said: ‘What planet are sNP politicians

on?’ The MP for Edinburgh South added: ‘It is deluded and completely disingenuous to the public to suggest these official Scottish Government figures make the case for leaving the UK. Such a huge gap between what Scotland raises and what is spent here would be unsustainable if it wasn’t for the strength of the UK, ensuring we can pool and share resources across the regions and nations.

‘Kate Forbes should be honest with Scots and explain how much she’d cut from Scotland’s NHS and schools and how much she would put taxes up by.’

The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) document is published every year to give a full account of how all public money is raised and spent.

It shows that Scotland’s deficit was £15.1billion in 2019-20, or 8.6 per cent of GDP – up from £13.1billion the previous year.

This compares with a deficit worth 2.5 per cent of GDP across the UK in 2019-20, up from 1.9 per cent the previous year. Scotland’s deficit is significantly higher than every member of the EU and compares

‘Deluded and disingenuous’ ‘Strength of the UK

with a European average of 0.6 per cent of GDP.

Romania has the next highest deficit, according to 2019 figures, at 4.3 per cent.

It is another hammer blow for the SNP’s separation case. To join the European Union, countries are expected to bring their deficit below 3 per cent of GDP.

Scottish Tory finance spokesman Murdo Fraser said: ‘By sharing resources and working together as one United Kingdom, Scotland has benefited from billions and billions of pounds of extra funding for schools and hospitals in the last year, or around £2,000 extra for every man, woman and child.’

The GERS figures are for the year to the end of March so only take in Covid’s early impact. The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies said the virus is likely to mean the deficit soars to 26-28 per cent of GDP this year, while the UK deficit is likely to rise to nearly 19 per cent.

It also warned that there are likely to be ‘elevated’ deficits until 2025.

IFS associate director David Phillips said: ‘Far bigger increases are in store for the current financial year, reflecting the economic impact of and government responses to the Covid-19 crisis.’

At a briefing after publication of the figures, Miss Forbes said they ‘reflect the current constitutional position, not the policy choices this Government would make were it to have the normal powers of most countries’.

She added: ‘The publication sets out the context for why the status quo and the present constitutional arrangements are unsustainable.’

She claimed an independent

Scotland ‘could and would’ manage its deficits ‘if it were to be given the fiscal levers that we have long called for’.

Although admitting coronavirus will continue to have an impact on finances, she claimed a separate Scotland would be able to afford to extend the furlough scheme.

She said she would use ‘fiscal levers’ to close the spending gap over a ten-year period. ‘Economic growth’ would be the primary means of reducing the deficit but confusingly she claimed she would increase borrowing to tackle it, even though that would result in the deficit rising.

‘The primary lever that I am asking for right now is the lever that every country round the world is using to respond to the pandemic – that is borrowing powers,’ she said.

Asked if the fiscal situation for an independent Scotland is better or worse than in 2014, she said only ‘the need for independence is more acutely visible than ever before’.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the figures are a ‘reflection of Scotland’s fiscal position in the UK, not of how Scotland would fare as an independent country’.

WE all know that it’s not possible to quantify in one set of numbers just how much Scotland benefits from being part of the United Kingdom.

As every proud, pro-UK, patriotic Scot knows, being part of the United Kingdom is about far more than just a financial benefit. No number on a spreadsheet will ever sum it up.

But if we must judge this vitally important relationship using hard financial figures, then the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) publication provides the numbers we need.

Scotland’s deficit, the gap between what we raise in tax and what we spend on public services, has risen from £13.1billion to £15.1billion.

That £15billion deficit is 8.6 per cent of our GDP. By comparison, the rest of the UK’s deficit is three times smaller, at 2.5 per cent of GDP.

That £15billion deficit is larger than our entire health budget. Balancing the books would mean savings on the scale of throwing away Scotland’s entire NHS, every nurse and doctor and every service that is so vital.

And it still wouldn’t get the job done – we would still be short by almost the price of the Queensferry Crossing.

It’s all very well pointing out these mammoth figures – but what do they really mean?

There is one number that makes it more quantifiable. The UK Union is more valuable than ever to each and every Scot. The ‘Union dividend’, as it’s known, is the combined value of higher public spending and lower revenue.

It means that every man, woman and child in Scotland is nearly £2,000 better off because we’re part of the United Kingdom.

That’s £2,000 per person that goes towards giving people a better life. It’s funding that our schools, hospitals and high streets need to thrive.

Why would anyone ever want to walk away from that?

My colleague Murdo Fraser said it’s ‘beyond dispute that the economic case for independence has never been weaker’.

Generous

Murdo is spot on. There has never been a more valuable time for Scotland to be part of the United Kingdom.

It makes me exceptionally proud to say that today, at this moment, given the difficult times we’ve gone through in the past six months.

And these GERS figures, as enormous as they are, don’t even take into account the way the UK Government pulled out all the stops to protect Scottish jobs and businesses throughout this pandemic.

They don’t include one of the largest, most generous and ultimately most successful job-saving schemes anywhere in the world.

They don’t take into account all the fantastic work that the Chancellor Rishi Sunak has done to pull Scotland and the UK back from the brink.

The GERS figures are only a drop in the ocean of how much Scotland has benefited from being a part of the United Kingdom during the Covid pandemic.

But I’ve got something to confess.

I don’t really want to be using these GERS figures to tell Nicola Sturgeon why her plans for a separate state would be reckless and damaging to people across Scotland.

I don’t really want to be using them as a stick to beat the SNP with, while pointing out all the flaws in their logic.

I don’t want to be debating the prospect of taking away this £15billion from our schools, hospitals and public services at all. Scotland doesn’t need to re-run the arguments of six years ago. That’s not what people across Scotland are crying out for.

The coronavirus pandemic has shown that we must leave the old divisions behind us.

We cannot go back to the politics of nationalism – of us versus them.

Scotland needs a party with a patriotic vision that focuses less on opening up divisions, and more on opening up opportunities and life chances for our country. That means ending the focus on constitutional division and the grievance culture that so dominates Scotland’s national life.

So I’ll drive home the benefits of the United Kingdom when we should, when publications like GERS make it clearer than ever.

But, unashamedly, I’ll spend more time focused on how we drive Scotland’s schools, hospitals and public services forward as part of a strong United Kingdom.

The debate that Scotland needs is not ‘should we take away this £15billion?’

It’s how do we put that £15billion – and the many more billions of tax revenue that Scotland generates – to the best possible use, so that we improve the lives of people across Scotland.

That’s the national conversation I want to lead into next year’s elections. Not about throwing away what we have, but about using what we’ve already got.

It’s so important that we move the narrative on from the divisions of the past because, in communities across Scotland, do people really feel they’re getting an extra £2,000 per person spent on their local schools, hospitals and public services?

I don’t believe they do. That extra £15billion for Scotland is too abstract because people just don’t see the direct benefit of it to their local area.

Dredging

They look around the area that they love and they see problems that politicians in Edinburgh won’t fix or don’t even know exist.

It’s clear to me why they don’t see that £15billion in action.

It’s because the people of Scotland have a government in Edinburgh that cares more about dredging up the arguments of 2014 than building something we can be proud of in the future.

They would rather divide us than unite us.

As leader of the Scottish Conservatives, I want to do the opposite.

I won’t focus on the divisions of the past but on a more positive vision of what Scotland can be in the future. I want to see all the energies, talents and powers of Scotland focused on where they should be: on restoring Scotland’s reputation for educational excellence and on protecting and creating more good jobs.

On education, I will make it my mission to consult with teachers, parents and pupils over the coming months and set out a fresh plan to restore Scotland’s hard-earned reputation as the best place to educate your child anywhere in the world.

Using the vast resources that these GERS figures show Scotland has at its disposal as part of the UK, I know we can bring Scotland’s schools back to where they belong.

I will be launching a jobs plan to set out exactly how we work together – with the UK Government, not against it as the SNP so often act – to rebuild Scotland’s economy from the brink.

Our priority on the other side of this crisis has to be creating and protecting jobs for people, no matter where they live – in a small town or a big city – and even more importantly, no matter where they went to school or what their parents did.

The GERS figures should give us confidence that the Union is as strong and secure as ever. It is more valuable than at any other point in modern history.

Now we need to use this confidence to stop playing the SNP’s games and start reclaiming the national conversation.

Together, with both of Scotland’s governments working in unison on the real priorities of Scottish people, I know that we can come through this pandemic stronger than ever.