Second wave of Covid ‘will not be as bad as the first’
A SECOND wave of Covid-19 in Britain would not be nearly as bad as the first because we are better at containing and treating the virus now, Government officials claim.
The experts believe a combination of local lockdowns, social distancing measures and medical breakthroughs would substantially reduce both the death rate and number of cases.
Hopes are also high that vaccines could be available as early as next spring, with a ‘long pipeline’ of promising jabs being trialled.
In addition, early signs from the southern hemisphere indicate that any flu outbreak will be less severe than in previous years.
Ministers had been concerned a combination of flu and coronavirus cases would prove catastrophic this winter.
However, officials also expect that advice on hygiene and social distancing during the Covid pandemic will suppress flu rates – as will the trend for working from home and avoiding public transport. In Australia and New Zealand – which typically provide good indicators of how the flu will develop in the UK – cases have remained low compared with last year.
Officials still believe the next six months ‘will be very tricky’ for the NHS and the country as a whole – but their cautious optimism provides a marked contrast to recent warnings from doctors’ unions and medical colleges, which have claimed that hospitals would be unable to cope with a second wave.
A survey by the British Medical Association this week found 86 per cent of doctors
‘Worse than science fiction’
expect coronavirus to surge again in the next six months.
However, Government officials believe that while cases are on the rise again, the curve will be flatter when compared with March and
April. One reason for this prediction is the fact that we now know so much more about the virus. This includes medical advances, such as the discovery that steroid treatment dexamethasone can cut the risk of death by a third.
Officials also say that local lockdowns – and the beleaguered Track and Trace service – have successfully prevented recent outbreaks from spreading more widely.
Nonetheless, they stress that it is wrong to assume that the virus is only circulating among the young.
Figures from the Department of Health yesterday showed there were 3,105 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, compared with around 5,000 a day at the height of the crisis. There were another 27 deaths, up from nine recorded on Tuesday.
A special envoy from the World Health Organisation yesterday said the ‘grotesque’ global outlook was ‘much worse than science fiction’.
Appearing before the Foreign Affairs Committee, Dr David Nabarro told MPs: ‘It’s a terrible situation... a health issue has got so out of control it’s knocking the world into not just a recession but a huge economic contraction, which would probably double the number of poor people.’