NATIONAL LOCKDOWN NEXT WEEK
Boris set to bow to grim warnings as infection rates soar and scientists say curbs are only way to save Christmas
BORIS Johnson is expected to announce a national lockdown next week after his scientific advisers told him it was the only way to save Christmas.
Scientists from the sage committee yesterday presented no 10 with bleak figures showing Covid is spreading ‘significantly’ faster than even their original ‘worstcase scenario’ prediction.
Last night, a Cabinet source told the Mail that the dramatic move would be announced next week.
Ministers have been warned the UK is on track to exceed the previous ‘worst-case scenario’ of 85,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter.
Experts believe the UK could face 1,000 deaths a day within a month.
Mr Johnson is expected to convene an emergency Cobra meeting with the leaders of scotland, Wales and northern Ireland to thrash out a ‘common approach to Christmas’.
In scotland, Deputy Fi r s t
Minister John Swinney yesterday warned Scotland could be plunged into a second lockdown if people fail to comply with tough new restrictions being imposed on Monday.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor Rishi Sunak had agonised over another national lockdown over fears it would leave jobs and the economy devastated for years.
It is not clear exactly what form the new measures will take, or what would be ordered to close or how long it would last.
But it is now looking increasingly likely it could be similar to the month-long shutdown imposed in France – as scientists say it is the only way to stop hospitals from running out of beds.
The Mail understands the scientists were backed by Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
At the Scottish Government’s daily brief
‘Possibility we have to move to lockdown’
ing yesterday, Mr Swinney revealed a further 1,281 Scots had tested positive for the virus and 1,170 were now in hospitals, amid growing concerns over capacity. The country’s death toll also rose by 28 to 2,819.
The UK Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) called for urgent national action including the closure of all bars and restaurants and other venues where households mix indoors.
Scientists said ministers have left it ‘too late’ for a two-week ‘circuit breaker’ to work. They argue a four-week lockdown is the best option to bring the R rate below 1 and prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.
If new measures are introduced quickly, restrictions could potentially be lifted in time for Christmas, allowing people to reunite with their loved ones over the festive season.
The Mail has been told Mr Johnson’s own No 10 team is split on the issue. One of his most influential political advisers is understood to have warned him that a national lockdown is ‘inevitable’ – and that delaying it could backfire on him.
Speaking to the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme, Mr Swinney said Scotland is ‘ potentially’ on the verge of being plunged back into a full lockdown. He said: ‘We hope that because of the early action we have taken we are able to stem the increases in the virus that have taken hold in France, for example, and we can avoid a national lockdown. But, I can’t say that is ruled out because if people don’t follow the guidance, if we don’t have compliance with the restrictions... then there is the possibility that we have to move to a national lockdown.’
On Monday, Scotland will move to a new five-tier restriction system following a three-week circuit breaker which closed pubs and restaurants in the Central Belt.
But despite claims of progress, areas such as Greater Glasgow and Clyde have continued to see huge numbers of cases, with 496 reported in the area yesterday.
On Tuesday, it emerged UK ministers had been told to prepare for 85,000 UK deaths this winter, with 500 deaths a day for at least three months and more than 300,000 people hospitalised.
But Government scientists said yesterday that this ‘reasonable worst- case scenario’ has already been breached. The planning document had estimated there would be 100 deaths a day by the end of October, but Britain is already seeing three times that amount.
In a document from a Sage meeting on October 7, scientists said infections and hospital admissions were already above estimates.
A week later, on October 14, another Sage statement said: ‘The number of daily deaths is now in line with the levels in the Reasonable Worst Case and i s almost certain to exceed this within the next two weeks.’
A document from October 7 by SPI-M-O, the scientific pandemic influenza group which reports to Sage, says: ‘There is clear evidence ... from the USA that shows restaurants and bars are particularly risky environments... any evidencebased attempts to halt the growth in the epidemic should include closing bars and restaurants to anything but takeaway service.’