Scientists’ Xmas warning
They hit out at ‘rash decision’ to let families mix... saying it will cost lives
MEDICAL experts piled pressure on ministers to rethink Christmas curbs last night, warning that the NHS risked being overwhelmed by a third coronavirus wave.
Health service leaders urged the Government to abandon its ‘rash decision’ to allow up to three households to mix freely – describing it as a ‘major error’.
An ‘inevitable’ post-Christmas third wave could start from a situation 40 times worse than when the second wave began in the autumn, warned a rare joint editorial by the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and the
Health Service Journal (HSJ). It said ministers were ‘about to blunder into another major error’ that would ‘cost many lives’.
However others argued last night that with stringent restrictions unlikely to be lifted for many weeks, the potential benefits of people being able to spend some time with their loved ones at the end of a difficult year might outweigh the risks.
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford said he had received ‘heart-rending pleas’ from people who lived entirely alone not to cancel the five- day break as it was the only thing they had to look forward to.
Yesterday a further 506 deaths and 18,450 cases were reported across the UK, compared with 616 deaths and 12,282 cases last Tuesday. There are 17,329 Covid-19 patients in hospital, close to the levels during the first peak in April.
The BMJ said English hospitals were on course to be treating 19,000 Covid-19 patients on New Year’s Eve, a figure that would keep rising into January if rules were relaxed over Christmas.
They said this would force the cancellation of most non-urgent treatment in January and ‘ wipe out’ 20 years of progress in cutting waiting times. Experts warned hospitals were rapidly filling with Covid patients and the UK was heading for an ‘avoidable catastrophe just in time for the new year’.
The joint editorial by the inhouse publications for NHS doctors and managers was only their second in more than a century.
HSJ editor Alastair McLellan and BMJ editor Fiona Godlee said that when the Government devised the Christmas plan, it was thought that ‘the Covid-19 demand on the NHS’ would be decreasing.
‘But it is not, it is rising, and the emergence of a new strain of the virus has introduced further potential jeopardy,’ they added.
They said that the NHS managed to cope during the second wave because it started from a relatively low base.
But they said the third wave would be starting from a position where the number of virus patients in hospital is 40 times higher, threatening to overwhelm the NHS. They wrote: ‘A substantial third wave could wipe out almost all the reductions in waiting times for elective procedures achieved in the past 20 years. Average waiting times will reach 12 months by March next year. This will take years to recover from, at the cost of much suffering and loss of life.’
The article concluded: ‘If our political leaders fail to take swift and decisive action, they can no
longer claim to be protecting the NhS.’
Scientists pointed to the US experience as a warning sign of what can happen if social distancing is relaxed over holiday periods.
Cases there have surged by a third since Thanksgiving, when more than a million flights were taken around the country and households mingled. Professor James Naismith, from the University of Oxford, said: ‘The likelihood of an exponential surge due to relaxation over Christmas means that high case numbers at the start of Christmas will make January dramatically worse.
But he said festive get-togethers could be made safer, adding: ‘If the visit is short, wash your hands thoroughly, wear a mask if possible, sit apart and ventilate the room. If two households are joining a household over Christmas, it will help if everyone in the household stops all other socialising for at least five days beforehand.’
Dr Julian Tang, from the University of Leicester, said: ‘I would say to everyone – can you tolerate a Zoom Christmas this year?’ Professor John edmunds, a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for emergencies, said: ‘Just because we can meet up with two other households, it doesn’t mean that we should.’
Ashley Woodcock, Professor of respiratory Medicine at the
University of Manchester, said: ‘Christmas is uniquely designed to mix young and old. This will bring severe disease and death to the e l derl y. This would be an avoidable catastrophe… just in time for New Year.’ British Medical Association chairman Dr Chaand Nagpaul added: ‘We have a recipe for catastrophe.’