RAPID RISE OF THE NEW STRAIN

Virus variant accounts for third of cases as Scotland shuts down

THE new strain of coronavirus has continued to spread rapidly in Scotland and accounted for more than a third of cases last week.

Prevalence of the new faster-spreading variant of the virus grew dramatically with the proportion of cases now catching up with England, where it has spiralled out of control in London and the South-east.

It comes as every part of mainland Scotland today enters a Level 4 lockdown in an attempt to get a grip on the spread of the new mutant strain, which is estimated to be 70 per cent more transmissible.

It means large parts of the economy will shut down entirely, including bars, restaurants, cafes, non-essential shops, hairdressers and beauty salons.

According to the Office for National Statistics’ latest infection survey, 38 per cent of cases in Scotland in the week beginning

December 14 may have been down to the new strain, up from 7 per cent the previous week. There were 5,376 positive cases in the week to December 20 – meaning that more than 2,000 of these could be down to the new strain, which only accounted for an estimated 424 cases the previous week.

The ONS data provides estimates of the prevalence of the new strain of the virus, although it does state that there is ‘considerable uncertainty’ around the numbers. It is based on analysis of swab results.

Only 18 cases of the new strain have been officially confirmed in Scotland through sampling, although medics have made clear the true figure will be far higher.

An analysis of the ONS infection data published by the Scottish Government states: ‘In the latest week, beginning December 14, analysis indicates that tests that are compatible with the new variant of the virus comprise 38 per cent of positive tests in Scotland.

‘This is compared with 7 per cent in the previous week, beginning December 7, and the previously reported 14 per cent in the week beginning December 9. Small numbers of new variant compatible positives detected in Scotland are leading to uncertainty surrounding these estimates.’

Health officials yesterday confirmed two new cases of the more transmissible strain of the virus have been discovered in Dumfries and Galloway.

One of them is associated with an outbreak of cases in Wigtownshire and the other near the Border in Annandale and Eskdale.

Valerie White, interim director of public health in Dumfries and Galloway, said: ‘The presence of the new strain has been identified.

‘This is very concerning news, and comes as we have been closely monitoring the situation nationally with respect to this new B117 strain. We have learned of the presence of the new strain today, and have acted quickly to make people aware of this discovery.’

From today, people are being advised to stay ‘as local as possible’ within their council area, to ‘stay at home as much as possible’ and not travel ‘any further than is absolutely necessary’.

Nicola Sturgeon also said she would consider strengthening the rules further in the coming days.

The First Minister said the tighter restrictions are needed to counter the risk of ‘exponential growth’ of the new, more infectious variant of the virus.

She added: ‘After a sustained period of decline, our case numbers are now more volatile and have risen by around 15 per cent in the last couple of weeks. The numbers of people with Covid who are in hospital and ICU have also risen slightly again after a period of quite marked decline.

‘The very rapid spread in London and the South East serves as a warning of what we will face here if we do not take firm action to suppress the virus.

‘We have a real concern that, without significant counter measures, we could be facing another period of exponential growth.

‘That would mean many more people catching Covid and, even without this new strain causing more severe illness, that would result in many more people needing hospital and intensive care. That would put an enormous strain on the NHS and lead to much more loss of life.’

Despite the rise in the new variant, the ONS survey indicated a fall in the total number of people in Scotland with coronavirus.

In the week from December 12 to 18, it was estimated 37,100 people had the virus, which is one in every 140 people and is lower than the previous week. This compares to one in every 60 people in Wales, one in 85 in England and one in 180 in Northern Ireland.