The nationalist backlash
■ One in three Scots feel ‘less favourable’ towards SNP as result of Salmond inquiry ■ Poll shows plunge in Sturgeon’s popularity ... and in support for breaking up the Union
MORE than one in three Scots say the Alex Salmond inquiry has made them less favourable towards the SNP, in a bombshell new poll.
The survey has provided the first clear evidence that the bitter war of words between the former First Minister and Nicola Sturgeon threatens the SNP’s prospects in the Holyrood elections.
Some 36 per cent of Scots say the inquiry has made them less favourable towards the SNP – and this includes 21 per cent of the party’s own voters.
It also shows that Miss Sturgeon’s popularity has slumped, while support for independence has declined.
The poll of 1,031 Scots was carried out in the six days up to Sunday, which was before the outcry over concerns about prosecutors redacting Mr Salmond’s evidence and the extraordinary series of public attacks by Miss Sturgeon on her predecessor.
Emily Gray, the managing director of market research company Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: ‘This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News shows a fall in support for independence, and a corresponding increase in support for staying in the Union – though Yes still has a four-point lead over No.
‘That’s important for Scotland’s parties, since independence is the top issue voters say will help them make up their minds about which party to vote for in May’s Holyrood elections.
‘At this point the SNP look on course to win a majority of seats, but the next few weeks are set to be challenging for the party, with the Salmond inquiry ongoing – and our poll shows that this issue has started to cut through with Scottish voters.’
The Ipsos Mori poll asked voters whether the inquiry into how the Scottish Government handled complaints about Mr Salmond made them more or less favourable towards the Nationalists.
Among all Scots, 36 per cent said it made them less favourable, compared to 2 per cent who said it made them more favourable and 58 per cent who said it made no difference.
Of those who voted SNP at the 2019 general election, 21 per cent said the inquiry has made them less favourable to the SNP, while 5 per cent said it made them more favourable and 58 per cent said it made no difference.
Miss Sturgeon’s personal popularity ratings have also plunged. Some 64 per cent of Scots say they are satisfied with her and 32 per cent say they are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of +32, which is down 16 points on October 2020.
Support for independence has slipped, although Yes retains a narrow lead.
Among those who say they would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 52 per cent say they would vote Yes while 48 per cent would vote No. In November, Yes had a 56-44 lead.
The SNP currently remains on course for a majority in May’s election – but its support on the constituency vote has slipped by three percentage points, to 52 per cent, since November. The Tories are on 23 per cent (+1), Labour on 15 per cent (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 per cent (-1) and Greens 3 per cent (+2).
On the regional list, the SNP is unchanged on 47 per cent, with the Tories also unchanged on 22 per cent, Labour on 14 per cent (-2), the Greens on 8 per cent (+1) and Liberal Democrats on 6 per cent (unchanged).
But three in ten voters say they may change their mind – suggesting that the election is still all to play for ahead of the campaign getting under way next month.
The poll showed views on independence and the Union are the top issue likely to decide who the people vote for in May, followed by education, health, coronavirus, the economy and Brexit.
Asked if there should be an independence referendum if the SNP win a majority, 43 per cent said there definitely should, which is down compaign pared to 51 per cent in October, while 34 per cent said there definitely should not – up on 27 per cent in October.
Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said: ‘It is welcome that support for remaining in the UK is on the rise.
‘People are recognising that as we navigate out of the Covid crisis with a UK-wide vaccination programme, we are stronger together.
‘But we know the SNP will never stop its negative camto divide the people of Scotland, so we must continue to make the positive case for remaining part of the UK.’
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross’s net satisfaction rate has increased slightly to -12, compared to -17 in October, while Boris Johnson has improved from -58 to -43 and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has fallen back from +16 to +3.
SNP deputy leader Keith Brown said: ‘This poll shows that voters in Scotland are continuing to put their trust in the SNP, ahead of the Westminster parties, to lead Scotland’s recovery.’
Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, welcomed her party’s performance in the poll.
She said: ‘I am delighted to see yet another opinion poll showing the Scottish Greens on course to elect a record number of MSPs in May.
‘We’ll continue to put the work in to show exactly why electing more Green MSPs will make a difference.
‘It’s clear the public appreciate the constructive approach adopted by the Greens over the last five years and throughout the pandemic.’
‘Stronger together’