Nationalist majority no longer likely
THE SNP is no longer on track for a majority in May’s Holyrood election as support continues to decline in the wake of a series of controversies.
A poll published yesterday put the SNP on course to win 64 seats, one short of a majority. And a separate new survey revealed that Scots do not want an independence referendum to take place this year or next.
The SNP plans to demand a referendum in its manifesto for May’s election, with the campaign likely to be dominated by debate over whether there should be a rerun of the 2014 vote, when 55 per cent of Scots backed remaining in the UK.
A poll of 1,009 adults by Savanta Comres for the Scotsman, carried out from March 510, is one of the first conducted after both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond appeared in front of the Holyrood inquiry into the handling of harassment complaints.
It found that 48 per cent of Scots intend to vote SNP on the constituency vote, which is six percentage points lower than the equivalent poll last month. On the regional list, the SNP is on 40 per cent – three percentage points lower than last month.
The Conservatives increased by four percentage points on the list, to 24 per cent, while it was unchanged on the constituency vote, at 23 per cent.
Labour, now led by Anas Sarwar, saw a four point rise on the constituency vote, to 20 per cent, while it was unchanged at 18 per cent on the list. The Lib Dems were on 8 per cent on the constituency ballot and 6 per cent on the list, while the Greens were on 10 per cent on the list.
It is estimated that, if the results were repeated in May, the SNP would win 64 seats, the Conservatives 30, Labour 20, the Greens ten and the Lib Dems five.
It also found that 45 per cent of respondents said they would vote Yes if another referendum was held tomorrow, while 47 per cent said they would vote No and 8 per cent said they did not know.
When unsure voters were excluded, a narrow majority of 51 per cent said they would vote in favour of the Union while 49 per cent would vote for independence.
A separate YouGov poll for The Times found that only 36 per cent of Scots think there should be a referendum this year, while 50 per cent think there should not be.
Some 33 per cent think there should be a referendum next year, while 48 per cent think there should not be.
It also gave a 51-49 lead for No when those who don’t know are excluded.
Pamela Nash, of Scotland in Union, said: ‘There is a clear trend in rising support for remaining part of the UK. With a successful UK vaccination programme and UK-wide support for jobs and businesses, it’s clear we’re stronger together.’
SNP campaign director Keith Brown said: ‘Both votes SNP will re-elect Nicola Sturgeon to lead recovery from the pandemic and build a fairer and greener nation.’