STURGEON’S COLD COMFORT
Polling expert predicts SNP may miss majority win But Nationalists are on course to form government First results later this morning — and result by Saturday
THE SNP’s hopes of a parliamentary majority appeared to be fizzling out last night as Scots went to the polls in their millions. Experts predicted that Nicola Sturgeon’s chances of wielding enough power to demand a second independence referendum hung in the balance.
It came as voters across the country had to brave cold winds, driving rain and blizzards to get to polling stations.
However, opposition party leaders were confident that they had managed to mobilise the pro-Union vote to stave off the threat of separation from the rest of the UK.
Professor Sir John Curtice, Scotland’s leading pollster, said the prospect of an SNP majority in the Scottish parliament remains at ‘50/50’, with polls predicting it could miss out by just one seat. He said the Tories are in a strong position to take second place at Holyrood despite Labour’s Anas Sarwar ‘breathing down’ their necks.
Sir John said: ‘Support for independence is now back at the level that it was before the pandemic. Indeed, polling by
both YouGov and Lord Ashcroft suggest the mood last summer that an independent Scotland might have handled the health crisis more effectively has disappeared.’
Despite the pandemic and treacherous weather in some areas, turnout for the ‘most important election’ since devolution was said to be strong.
Last night, pro-Union parties said their vote was holding up in key areas, with the hope they could thwart Miss Sturgeon’s bid to get a parliamentary majority.
However, the overall result will not be known until tomorrow evening, with constituencies beginning to declare from lunchtime today. Due to Covid, council chiefs cancelled overnight counts.
The first 46 constituency seats will be declared today, with the remaining 27 counts finishing tomorrow. The 56 regional list seats will be declared tomorrow evening.
Voters had to battle plummeting temperatures and heavy snow in large parts of Scotland, including Perthshire and the Highlands, where as much as six inches settled.
Cold wind and driving rain made going to the polls in large swathes of the Central Belt an unpleasant experience.
Sir John posted his final analysis yesterday, looking at the average rating for parties in the five most recent polls. He warned Miss Sturgeon’s chances of a majority at Holyrood remain on a knife-edge and said it looks likely she could miss out by just one seat.
Writing on WhatScotlandThinks.Org, Sir John said assuming changes in the share of the vote compared to polls in the 2016 election are replicated ‘the figures would put the SNP on 64 seats, one short of a majority’.
He added: ‘What this really means is that there is apparently a 50/50 chance that the SNP will secure an overall majority on their own – and thereby repeat the party’s success in 2011, a success that paved the way for the independence referendum of 2014.’
He also highlighted plummeting support for Scottish independence in recent months. Miss Sturgeon has pledged to hold a second referendum in the first half of the next parliamentary term – meaning it could take place as early as 2023, despite the country’s desperate need to recover from the pandemic, both in health and economy.
Sir John said whether there is an SNP majority could come down to a ‘clutch of
Plummeting support for independence
nine marginal seats being defended by the Conservatives or Labour’ which have a lead over the SNP of just five points or fewer.
This includes Scotland’s most marginal seat in Dumbarton, where Jackie Baillie was
just 109 votes ahead in the last election. He said: ‘Winning six of them would be enough for the SNP to reach 65 seats irrespective of what happens on the list.’
But Sir John said it appears to be ‘more certain’ leader Douglas Ross will retain second place in Holyrood for the Scottish Conservatives, despite the momentum behind Mr Sarwar’s new leadership of the Labour Party.
He explained this was due to the strong pro-Union tactical voting, with one in seven backing Labour on the constituency ballot opting for Tory on the regional list. Sir John said: ‘Although Labour are breathing down the Conservatives’ neck on the constituency vote, the party is four points adrift on the list.’
THE countdown has begun – and within hours we will know at least some of the Holyrood election results.
There can be no overstatement of the importance of this contest and the implications of its outcome for the fate of the Union.
It’s impossible to forecast with any certainty whether the SNP will achieve its objective of securing a majority.
But Scotland’s leading pollster, Professor Sir John Curtice, believes it might narrowly miss out on realising that longed-for goal.
If the Nationalists do win outright control of Holyrood, the result would be used as a springboard for a renewed bid to push for a second referendum.
As Sir John notes, it’s ‘far from certain’ that a pro-independence majority made up of SNP, Green and Alba MSPs would provide a mandate for another divisive poll.
Tactical voting will have been the preferred option for a large number of Unionists – and now the nation faces a tense wait to find out whether it has paid off.