FEARS OVER ALARMING RISE IN NEW VIRUS CASES

Surge of city infections jeopardises easing of lockdown amid concern over Indian variant

HEALTH bosses have admitted to being ‘very concerned’ about a huge spike in Covid cases in Scotland’s largest city.

The surge in glasgow may be linked to the faster-spreading Indian variant, they said.

The city is due to be lowered into Level 2 restrictions next week, along with most of the rest of the country, but that is now under threat. the rapid spread of the virus in the city’s south side has been blamed on people mixing in their homes.

The benchmark for staying in Level 3 is 50 cases per 100,000, but health chiefs say the city-wide rate is 74.

It comes after infection rates jumped in moray, where cases per 100,000 have surpassed 100.

The first minister has already indicated that moray is unlikely to be moved out of Level 3 if the ‘uncontrolled’ spread continues.

There has been no scottish government confirmation on whether glasgow will remain in Level 3.

Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the university of edinburgh, said she was ‘very concerned’ but advocated a more localised approach to lockdown

She added: ‘You need 20-50 cases

per 100,000 to go down to Level 2 [but] the fact they are up to 74 suggests the indicator has not reached that threshold.

‘But it is a huge area so if it is located in certain postcodes it is not really fair for the whole city to be locked down.

‘At the moment I would suggest surge testing, even going door to door and getting out into the community to encourage asymptomatic testing.’

Professor Bauld pointed out that the other five indicators used by the Scottish Government were still ‘well below the threshold’. She added: ‘What I would say, is there is a lag between positive tests and hospitalisations.

‘The Scottish Government has got to be transparent about the indicators they are using. There is clearly something going on, certainly in the north of England and some parts of London, where one of the so-called Indian variants is definitely causing concern.

‘If the cases are in the south of Glasgow, it is a very diverse place and I’m not making assumptions, but can any be linked to travel?’

Linda de Caestecker, director of public health at NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, said there were clusters appearing around the city.

She said she was ‘concerned’ at the spike and that areas such as Pollokshields and Battlefield were being monitored carefully.

Dr De Caestecker added: ‘It seems particularly to be household mixing. We know that restrictions are going to be lifted in a few days and I do understand people thinking “If we can do it on Monday, why can’t we do it now”.

‘But it is people mixing together in households that we think is the source of this increase. It shows we cannot be complacent.

‘The numbers go up very, very quickly – particularly as we see new variants coming in that are more transmissible. What we know is that it’s not the Kent variant, so the assumption is it’s the Indian variant but we haven’t got the sequencing yet so we can’t be sure.’

Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland, National Clinical Director Jason Leitch said: ‘We’re a little bit unsure about the nature of this individual variant, it’s at least as transmissible as the Kent variant, we hope it’s not worse, but we’re having to do lots of science to find out.

‘That’s one of the big concerns, we’ve talked about that for months, a variant worse than Kent would set us back.’

One Indian variant has been designated a ‘variant of concern’ by Public Health England, but there is ‘insufficient evidence’ to show it causes more severe symptoms or makes vaccines less effective.

Most parts of Scotland are set to move from Level 3 to Level 2 on Monday. But Professor Leitch warned that people must observe the rules that still exist.

He said the Muslim festival of Eid this week is a challenge ‘because it’s such a big family celebration’ and ‘family restrictions are not released until Monday... that’s not in time for Eid.’

The Government said sampling is under way to determine the viral types.

A spokesman said: ‘We are monitoring the situation in Glasgow and are in close contact with local government and public health leaders.

‘The local incident management team has met and further support is being provided to enhance outbreak management.’

‘New variants coming in’