WE ARE AT A TURNING POINT
Fight against virus grows as infection rates and cases keep plummeting
SCOTLAND is now at a ‘turning point’ in the battle against coronavirus as hospital numbers, positive cases and infection rates continue to dramatically fall.
A Scottish Government report has highlighted a series of figures which show the virus is on retreat following a surge in cases earlier this summer.
The R number – the average number of people infected by someone who has Covid – has fallen below one, while there has been a sustained decline in case numbers and the vaccine has reduced the likelihood of someone ending up in hospital after catching Covid by up to 81 per cent.
It comes after Nicola Sturgeon said earlier this week that she is ‘optimistic’ she will be able to go ahead with plans to lift most remaining Covid mandatory restrictions from August 9.
The latest Scottish Government ‘modelling the epidemic’ report said: ‘The epidemic in Scotland appears to be at a turning point. Cases have been decreasing over the past few weeks.’
However, it also added a note of caution by warning: ‘There remains uncertainty about the epidemic in future weeks.’
The latest estimate of the R number is that it stood at between 0.8 and one in Scotland in the period to July 26, despite an increase in the number of interactions with other people in every age group as restrictions continued to ease.
There is not a single local authority area in Scotland which is estimated to have a strong likelihood of exceeding 100 cases per 100,000 the weeks ahead, while only ten of the 32 areas are judged to have a 75 per cent or more probability of exceeding 50 cases per 100,000 population.
The report also found that vaccinated people are far less likely to be hospitalised after at least 28 days following the first dose. The reduction in the risk of hospitalisation is reduced by an average of 72 per cent for people who have received the Astra Zeneca and 81 per cent for Pfizer vaccines.
It means that estimates of the number of people who end up in hospital have reduced, with the worst case scenario, now around 375 would be in hospital in the middle of August, while a better case scenario is that it could fall below 250.
Wastewater testing also indicates Covid-19 levels have reduced from a peak of several weeks ago, although they still remain slightly higher than the number of reported cases. The main hotspots include the Nigg area of Aberdeen, Kirkcaldy and Levenmouth in Fife, Daldowie, Carbarns and Hamilton in Lanarkshire, and Paisley in Renfrewshire.
Separate Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates show 0.94 per cent of the population tested positive for Covid in the week from 18-24 July, following a decrease in cases in the community.
The ONS estimated that 49,500 people in Scotland had Covid-19 at any given time during the period, which is around one in 110 people. This is down compared to one in 80 the previous week.
Around one in 65 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to July 24, up from one in 75 in the previous week. It is the ninth week in a row that infection levels in England have increased – though there are ‘possible signs’ the rate of increase may have slowed, the ONS said.
Around one in 160 people in Wales are estimated to have had Covidin 19 in the week to July 24, up from one in 210 and the highest level since the week to February 12. In Northern Ireland, the latest estimate is around one in 65 people, up from one in 170.
All figures are for people in private households, and do not include hospitals, care homes and other settings.
In a further sign of the impact of the vaccine rollout, an analysis of the ONS figures by the Scottish Government said: ‘The proportion of people testing positive remains higher in younger people. In the most recent week, the trend in the proportion of people testing positive in the community population in Scotland appears to have decreased for all ages.’
Yesterday’s daily figures showed 3,980,029 Scots have now received the first dose, which is 89.7 per cent of the adult population, while 3,151,971, or 71 per cent, have received the second dose.
Miss Sturgeon said last month she expected to have given all 4049 year-olds the second dose by July 26. But she claimed this week the target was only to offer appointments to all 40-49 year-olds by then.
The latest data shows that more than 98 per cent of all age groups above 60 have received both doses but this falls to 95.4 per cent for the 55-59 age group then 92.1 per cent for 50-54, 79.3 per cent for 4049, 42.5 per cent for 30-39, and 22.8 per cent for 18-29.
Figures published earlier this week by Public Health Scotland show nearly 3,000 of the 3,321 Scots who have died after contracting the virus had not had a single dose of the vaccine. Only 92 were fully vaccinated – and had other factors which contributed to their deaths.
‘There remains uncertainty’ ‘Decreased for all ages’