We need trustworthy statistics... not spin

ANOTHER day, another minister accused of misusing statistics.

Barely 24 hours after Deputy First Minister John Swinney was referred to the UK Statistics Authority for spinning Covid data, Humza Yousaf has angered opposition figures by claiming current case rates were the ‘worst-case scenario’ that government modellers foresaw.

However, cases are almost 45,000 lower than the most negative model worked up by St Andrew’s House.

On Thursday, Mr Swinney was reported to the national statistics watchdog for trying to sell the benefits of Nicola Sturgeon’s post-Christmas restrictions using pre-Christmas case numbers. Needless to say, the Covid Recovery Minister also drew on these out-of-date numbers to suggest the situation was worse in England.

Mr Yousaf was himself rapped by the statistics watchdog last year after he ‘inaccurately presented’ the figures on child Covid cases during a BBC interview.

Whether they are being poorly briefed or simply struggle to understand the proper use of statistics, ministers are undermining public confidence in statements made by the Scottish Government.

This would be highly unfortunate at the best of times but in a pandemic it is positively dangerous.

What the public wants now more than ever is information that is reliable, trustworthy, independently verified and easy to understand. That is not, or should not be, too much to ask.