Scotland still have to show that they’re the real deal
NOBODY can agree which team are favourites and which team are the underdogs at Murrayfield on Saturday. England have been training very well according to Eddie Jones — but the Met Office forecast suggests the weather in Edinburgh tomorrow could well be filthy.
The Six Nations certainly feels like it is up and running, the pre-tournament rituals and debates rarely change over the decades.
Jones has named a team that very few would have predicted but, as ever, the bottom line is: how will they approach the game and actually play? How will they attack the challenge of beating Scotland at their citadel?
Ultimately, team sheets are just 23 names on a piece of paper, they mean little without context. England have loads of very good players, and so do Scotland these days for that matter. They have built great strength in depth. The personnel is sometimes not as important as the overall approach and mindset.
It’s not quite the England team I would have picked. I wanted Alex Dombrandt to help control the game at No8, the dynamic Sam Simmonds as a surprise choice at blindside and Mark Atkinson as a specialist No12. I am also a little concerned that, in essence, England have a brilliant full-back on one wing — Max Malins — and a long-time centre, Joe Marchant, on the other.
Both are terrific players and could deliver in spades and stop any debate stone dead. Malins’ ability under the high ball could prove very useful and Marchant is a fine all-round talent. Equally, Finn Russell is a crafty enough operator at 10 to exploit any uncertainty and hesitancy in an England back division that might take time to gel.
Lots of relatively new faces, people playing slightly out of position and the 21st centre pairing of Jones’ reign. It could be interesting, especially if wet, blustery weather transpires. That would also test England’s ability to think on the hoof, tinker with game plans and just display good rugby common sense.
This England selection really has some pace about it from one to 15 and I applaud that and hope playing at a lightningfast tempo has featured highly in their preparations.
By tempo, I mean speed of thought as well as speed of foot. Quick lineouts, no undue faffing around at scrum-time, inventive dropouts and tapped penalties. England need their opponents to feel hurried and hassled. I’m loving the look of that England front row with Ellis Genge and Kyle Sinckler as props and Luke Cowan-Dickie now installed as the starting hooker. They must concentrate first on their scrum duties — and Genge has grown noticeably stronger in the last season or two — but they are archetypal, modern ball-playing props who can cause damage around the park and pass with the best of them. England are trusting them with starts so they must play to their strengths.
With Jonny Hill, Courtney Lawes and Joe Launchbury missing at lock through injury, there was a big call to be made and England have picked Nick Isiekwe, who is a great athlete and used to packing down with Maro Itoje. That seems a strong selection but the back row will cause much debate.
I’d pay good money to see a back row of Dombrandt, Simmonds and Tom Curry and I am therefore slightly puzzled by Lewis Ludlam’s selection, impressive as he is for his club Northampton.
Dombrandt can dictate the tempo from No 8 and has that natural instinct to pick his moments — and the correct lines — in attack. He also links instinctively with his club colleague Marcus Smith at 10.
Which brings us to Smith. I’m loath to heap any more pressure on the young man — although there is every indication he thrives during big moments.
So here goes anyway. Smith is the key to England’s season — and the opener against Scotland. I’ve seen enough of him to know he is the real deal and a special player, it’s just a matter of if there will be a little bedding in time to the intensity of Six Nations rugby. That would be perfectly normal but he is not a normal player.
What confronts him tomorrow surpasses anything he will have experienced previously. The big autumn international against the Springboks will be nothing compared with the Scots at Murrayfield. Nothing can prepare you for that.
In my estimation, he will get there sooner rather than later but can he hit the ground running tomorrow? And can he do that playing opposite Finn Russell?
Eddie has a point in claiming Scotland — with two wins and a draw in their last four games against England — are favourites tomorrow, although I would omit the word ‘strong’ which he also used. The Scottish pack did a job on England 12 months ago and will fancy their chances of repeating that in front of their own supporters at Murrayfield.
In saying that, I never thought I would hear England’s head coach insisting they were underdogs against Scotland which, if true, begs two questions. What has happened to English rugby — and similarly, what has happened to Scottish rugby?
England have it all to do but over the years that often brings out the best in them.
Starting a Calcutta Cup match as favourites will be a new pressure for Scotland and, as we get nearer to the day, I’m fancying England for a narrow ‘upset’ win. England by five.