Who will blink first in the bid for greatness?
HOPES OF A LIVERPOOL QUADRUPLE AND A CITY TREBLE WILL END TODAY, SO...
THE path towards a Treble — or indeed a Quadruple — has never run smoothly. Now, as Manchester City and Liverpool continue their assaults on something extraordinary, they have hit their first significant bumps in the road.
As the teams prepare to meet at Wembley in an FA Cup semi-final today, it is tempting to view the game as the second in what may yet become a thrilling trilogy.
Last weekend’s Premier League clash was an uplifting spectacle and both teams are favourites to progress through their Champions League semi-finals and meet in Rome at the end of May. Some prospect that would be.
For the respective teams and their managers, however, this afternoon presents problems that can only be viewed in isolation of what will be another challenging and mentally exhausting occasion for both.
City were the better side in last Sunday’s 2-2 draw but Pep Guardiola presented Jurgen Klopp with tactical surprises and selections that he perhaps will not be able to repeat today. His team have also just come through a bruising evening at Atletico Madrid. Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker and perhaps Phil Foden are unlikely to be available while the emotional and physical fallout of what happened in Spain may not truly be known until kick-off in London.
Liverpool rested players for their midweek Champions League game with Benfica but suffered the collateral psychological damage of another night of quite catastrophic defending.
Klopp may wave the issue away but he will know what everybody else does, namely that Liverpool’s work out of possession has been deteriorating since the turn of the year.
If the graph continues to trend in this direction, it may well be that the Carabao Cup — claimed on penalties against Chelsea in February — may yet be the only trophy they win this season.
These are the challenges of competing on multiple fronts. Excellence brings great football teams opportunity but also challenges so great that it can turn hairline cracks into fractures.
Today is particularly important for both clubs because it means that only one can emerge with dreams of a Treble of League, FA Cup and European Cup intact. Liverpool came close to winning all three in 1977, only to be denied by Manchester United in the cup final at Wembley.
United managed it in 1999 and are the only English club to do so. That was a truly great side but even they overcame obstacles that should have flattened them.
Writing in his first autobiography, Sir Alex Ferguson addressed the challenges of playing fixture after fixture during the closing weeks of that season. He thinks it helped his players to develop a momentum.
They were tired, he said, but fuelled by the adrenaline of persistently winning. Currently, City and Liverpool know all about that. Both managers demand a style of football that requires big lungs and hearts to match. Equally, of the last 47 games the teams have played between them this season, they’ve lost precisely once each. That is another reason why today’s encounter is so fascinating. Somebody has to lose today, even if it takes a shoot-out.
Guardiola will be driven by his search for perfection. His attitude to domestic cup competitions is exemplary. Equally, he has won this tournament only once, in 2019, and that irritates him.
Today, he must find a new way to dissect Liverpool in Wembley’s wide open spaces. Last weekend’s targeting of Trent Alexander Arnold and the decision to push Gabriel Jesus high on to Andrew Robertson, was masterly. But Guardiola probably won’t be able to do it again without Klopp presenting a counter plan.
Liverpool will hope for more security. Fabinho and Thiago Alcantara — if selected — must provide an effective screen for their back four. Equally, the defence must re-establish their understanding of what represents a straight line.
The most startling fact from their 3-3 draw with Benfica was that the Portuguese side actually had the ball in the Liverpool net five times. Two goals were ruled out for narrow offsides.
The challenges facing both City and Liverpool are clear today. Defeat removes a central pillar from a shot at greatness. Somebody will fall off the high wire this afternoon.