‘60 years of economic pain’ after independence
IT would take Scotland up to 60 years to reach a sound financial footing if it was to become independent, an academic has warned.
Professor John Bryson of Birmingham University – an expert in enterprise and economic geography – said the country would face ‘difficult years’ financially.
In an analysis of the recent paper released by the Scottish Government on the country’s post-independence economy, Professor Bryson wrote: ‘The Scottish Government should acknowledge that post-independence would involve a long adjustment period. I would suggest this should take between one or two generations, or between 30 and 60 years.’
He added: ‘These will be difficult years during which living standards and public service provision will decline as Scotland negotiates a new future with Britain and with other trading partners.’
Issues around the Border between Scotland and England would also ‘take decades to solve’, he said, while the prospectus in the paper is unachievable ‘this decade’.
Professor Bryson highlighted the importance of a ‘rigorous and balanced assessment’ of the country’s economy postindependence, adding: ‘The current Scottish Government should acknowledge that breaking away from the UK would be difficult and that there would be immediate economic and public service consequences, and that adjustments would occur over decades rather than years.’
The Government’s paper laid out plans around an independent Scotland’s currency, borders and more detail on a proposed £20billion capital fund to be set up in the first decade after breaking from the UK.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: ‘Fundamentally, we argue in this paper that a stronger, fairer, more sustainable economy is more possible for Scotland with independence than it ever will be with continued Westminster control.’
The document detailed the Government’s proposals for the creation of a separate Scottish pound, but the First Minister repeatedly refused to give a timescale for moving to the new currency.