Tories can reap rich dividends by taking fight to tired old SNP in 2023

THE only thing more foolhardy than making New Year’s resolutions is trying your hand at predictions. Nevertheless, there are some trends in politics worth watching out for, be that challenges facing governments or rumblings within the parties.

As things stand, it does not seem likely there will be an election this year, so political leaders have an opportunity to make 2023 a year of consolidation, either strengthening their position or finding some firm ground after 12 months of drift. Not a year of high excitement but one of hard graft in navigating the UK out of choppy waters.

Of course, politics is vulnerable to sudden and unpredictable shifts. Few saw Brexit or Partygate or the Liz Truss implosion coming. As the old Yiddish proverb runs, ‘Mensch tracht, Gott lacht’ – man plans, God laughs.

NICOLA STURGEON WILL NEED AN AGENDA

BE careful what you wish for is a sound axiom in politics as much as in life.

On paper, Nicola Sturgeon could not be in a more commanding position. Eight years in Bute House, still comfortably ahead in the polls, Teflon-like in the face of every scandal, she has become to Scottish politics what Margaret Thatcher was in the 1980s.

But she recently faced her first backbench rebellion, suffered a ministerial resignation, and lost her ally Ian Blackford as Westminster leader. Worst of all, she has failed to produce the second independence referendum she has been promising for years and her notion of a de facto election plebiscite has been granted almost zero credence – still more than it deserves.

She will need to carve out an agenda that reminds voters she is running the country but which also keeps an increasingly fractious base in line. She is in danger of raising a lethal question among her followers: if Sturgeon can’t deliver independence, what good is she doing them?

THE SCOTTISH TORIES CAN MAKE PROGRESS

DOUGLAS ROSS and his party ended 2022 on a high and have every right to be confident they can punch more holes in the SNP’s paper-thin policy handbook.

At the mercy of Westminster turbulence for much of the year, the Scottish Tories will hope the new year can help them to reinvigorate their fortunes north of the Border. A key priority will be redefining themselves in the eyes of the voters.

Their ‘No to indyref 2’ stance brought them new votes in 2016 and 2021, when the prospect of a second referendum alarmed Unionists. The Supreme Court ruling changed that dynamic and now the Tories will have to open other fronts in their efforts against the SNP.

This will likely be another challenging year, but there are opportunities too. As they showed on the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, they are still the most reliable opposition to Nicola Sturgeon. Their use of every trick in the book to filibuster the Bill was some of the best parliamentarianism ever seen at Holyrood.

They should draw on this episode to reassert themselves as a populist, bluecollar alternative to the SNP and Labour. A few simple policies, a more combative tone and a healthy disregard for the Holyrood bubble could pay dividends in 2023.

HUMZA YOUSAF’S JOB WILL BE ON THE LINE

HE is already shaping up to be the worst health secretary of devolution, which is saying something.

The sheer range and depth of problems labouring down on the health service are such that Yousaf will need a miracle to get the NHS back in tip-top condition by the end of this year.

He must contend with record A&E waits, understaffed hospitals, single-crewed ambulances, unmet waiting targets and warnings from top doctors that NHS Scotland is on the brink of collapse.

It’s a crisis that would challenge the best of them, but Yousaf has yet to impress in his role and seems to go to ground when problems arise. If he can’t win the confidence of the public and the clinicians in the next 12 months, he may lose the confidence of the First Minister.

THE SCOTTISH GREENS WILL COME UNDER MORE SCRUTINY

THEY are the least scrutinised party in Scotland yet they enjoy more influence over Scottish Government policy than every SNP backbencher combined.

The Scottish Greens are the reason Nicola Sturgeon spurned sensible reform of the Gender Recognition Act in favour of trans self-identification, kicking medical experts out of a process crying out for their measured wisdom on safeguarding.

But their time in government has not seen Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater advance environmental causes important to other Green parties. Their deposit return scheme has been watered down and Scottish climate targets, the Climate Change Committee warns, are ‘in danger of becoming meaningless’. Their extreme views, outsized influence and failures on policies the party once held dear mean the Scottish Greens can no longer be treated as a joke. They are a party of government and their beliefs and agenda will have to be interrogated more rigorously.

2023 WILL BE A MAKE-ORBREAK YEAR FOR THE PM

POOR old Rishi Sunak doesn’t have his sorrows to seek.

A country mile behind in the polls, distrusted by grassroots Tories and tainted by his role in ousting Boris, the PM has as much work to do winning over his party as he does the country. The latter, though, is a far more daunting feat. Economic confidence is in the gutter, the unions are testing ministers’ mettle and political headaches such as illegal boat crossings in the Channel remain unresolved.

It’s not impossible that he pulls things back from the brink but Tory MPs will want to see signs of a turnaround before this year ends.

SIR KEIR STARMER WILL ENCROACH FURTHER ON TORY TERRITORY

MAKING Sunak’s life all the more difficult will be Sir Keir Starmer.

In another time, the Labour leader would be dismissed as a smarmy London lawyer, but public fatigue and frustration with the Tories means he’s getting more than a fair hearing. His unspoken pitch is that he’s a modern-day Tony Blair, the sensible centrist whom Middle Britain can trust to clean up the Tories’ mess while keeping the left on a leash.

In truth, Sir Keir is firmly to the left of Blair and swayed by every fashionable cause that comes along. He might be campaigning as New Labour but he would likely govern as Woke Labour. For now, though, expect him to continue his incursions into natural Conservative territory on crime and patriotism.

ANAS SARWAR WILL HAVE TO SHOW WHAT HE’S MADE OF

THE past 12 months have been kind to Anas Sarwar. Scottish polls sprung him into second place, UK polls put Labour miles ahead and the Union his party feels uncomfortable talking about has slipped down the agenda. He has also consistently bested Nicola Sturgeon on health matters at First Minister’s Questions.

If you can sense a ‘but’ coming, that’s what 2023 may well represent. Sarwar has certain qualities but he is just one man and while there are solid, dependable MSPs around him, there are too many Corbyn-era mediocrities. If Sarwar ever hopes to be First Minister, he will have to cut these characters loose, attract talent from broader public life and make Scottish Labour more appealing to Middle Scotland. Decent patter and looking good on telly aren’t enough.