By Jonathan Brocklebank So would the lynx REALLY be a boon for tourism... or just a snarling, spitting threat to farms and vulnerable wildlife?
IN Spain they call them the Iberian jewel, fete them like royalty and rejoice at their burgeoning numbers. In Norway the farmers call them everything under the sun because, they say, the beasts are killing not just their livestock but their industry.
Here in Scotland, we call them extinct. They may have been so for as many as 1,200 years or for as few as 260, depending on who you ask. But, within the next decade, we could be calling them the comeback cats or chieftains of the food chain.
The creature in question is the lynx, the middleweight of the feline family whose success as a big game hunter belies its stature.
It is particularly partial to deer and Scotland is awash with the ruminants which, to the chagrin of many, have no natural predators here.
The lynx, some four times the size of a household cat, would change all that. Its reintroduction would restore to the wilds of Scotland an apex predator – a natural born killer which is not itself predated upon.
The question is whether releasing the lynx here would also help restore biodiversity to our depleted wildernesses or, as some fear, unleash utter bedlam.
This week a Holyrood reception was held to float the idea of returning the Eurasian lynx – in small numbers at first – to its old Scottish stamping grounds.
Unsurprisingly, the issue proved highly divisive. Those representing the farming community pointed to the horror stories of Norway, while rewilding enthusiasts highlighted Spain’s love affair with the lynx, and successful reintroductions in France, Germany and Switzerland.
But there are shades of opinion in between the two poles – and a genuine curiosity among many as to what would happen if a carnivore bigger and deadlier than a badger stalked the Scottish countryside for the first time this century.
Would they make a beeline for the easy pickings such as sheep? What of our fragile woodland bird populations?
AS Sir David Attenborough made clear in his recent BBC series Wild Isles, there are perhaps only 500 capercaillies left in the Caledonian pine forests of the Cairngorms. Would the lynx – a highly accomplished bird catcher – make short work of them?
Or, on the contrary, would they displace existing predators such as the fox and allow these species to thrive? Such a scenario has been seen in Spain where even farmers and landowners now welcome the presence of the lynx and treat it as a tourist attraction.
Others in Norway suggest that laying out the red carpet for the beast in the UK would be a grievous act of self-harm. Their long border with Sweden makes it impossible to control roaming carnivores. As an island, they point out, Britain has the luxury of deciding for itself.
The one near certainty is the human population would be safe from them. Indeed, there is not a single recorded case of such an attack anywhere in the lands they roam – even if it would be unwise to corner or trap them.
Rather, as history has proved, the shy, largely nocturnal creature is at far greater danger from us.
It was human hunting and deforestation which resulted in lynx being wiped out in the UK – and, in some countries where they have been reintroduced, there remains an appetite for shooting them.
Zoologist David Hetherington, a leading expert on the Eurasian lynx, is among those who favour a partial return of the beasts to Scotland – starting perhaps with a couple of dozen – and he was on hand at the Holyrood reception to explain to attendees what living with them would be like. In practice, few of us would ever know they were there.
But he has long argued the concerns of stakeholders such as Scotland’s farmers must not be ignored.
He says: ‘Understandably, a human population unaccustomed to living alongside large carnivores will have concerns about their return.
‘This should not be dismissed by conservationists as ill-informed scare mongering.
‘Experiences elsewhere tell us it is essential for the success of a reintroduction that all sectors of the rural community are involved in discussions and have the opportunity to shape policy.’ The problem may be that there is more heat in the debate about the animals’ possible return to Scotland than there is light.
The Holyrood presentation was sponsored by the Scottish Greens MSP Ariane Burgess – whose party is widely seen as no friend to the farming community – and organised by a string of rewilding charities including Scotland: The Big Picture.
As for NFU Scotland, it says it was not invited – and pre-empted the presentation by calling for a permanent rejection by the Scottish Government of any plans to add lynx to the list of problems already facing its members.
NFU Scotland president Martin Kennedy said: ‘The past few years have seen a long line of brazen and presumptuous claims from organisations about the imminent reintroduction of predators to the UK, causing considerable angst and anxiety to those who keep livestock in Scotland.
‘The only application in the UK to date, to reintroduce
lynx to Kielder in the north of England, was rejected by the UK Government.’
He added that a previous rural economy secretary, Fergus Ewing, had guaranteed he would never support such a reintroduction.
‘We fully expect the current Scottish Government to stand by that pledge,’ said Mr Kennedy.
For the SNP, the battle lines here look like familiar territory: environmental idealism as espoused by their partners in government the Greens – versus the cold practicalities faced by those who make a living from the land.
As Mr Kennedy points out: ‘When the researchers/environmentalists have patted themselves on the back and packed up at the end of the pilot, they leave farmers and crofters dealing with the impacts in perpetuity.’
There is, however, limited polling to suggest a majority of Scots may be open to the return of the lynx if it means spending less on deer culls. In 2018-19 the government agency Forestry and Land Scotland spent almost £7million on this and almost 80,000 deer are culled annually to protect woodlands from overgrazing.
When a Survation poll presented these facts along with the lynx’s success as a deer-hunter, 52 per cent were in favour of their reintroduction while 19 per cent were opposed and the remainder indifferent or unsure.
Was the question a fair one, though? There was no mention of the risk posed to sheep and, in Scotland, that remains by far the biggest bone of contention.
The Norway example is, for some, a salutary warning of exactly what to expect should lynx be released in Scotland.
On an NFU Scotland trip to the country five years ago, a delegation was told Norwegian authorities had paid out compensation for 20,000 sheep lost to predators – and lynx accounted for 21 per cent of those. European Parliament research, meanwhile, reveals that Norway loses 16 sheep per lynx. The losses of EU countries which have lynx populations are between zero and two per lynx.
And while it is true that predation on farmed livestock in Norway has reduced in the past ten years, it is argued the reason for that is fewer farmers dare to k eep sheep.
MR Kennedy said: ‘The Norwegian NFU believe that around 1,000 hill farmers have given up in the past ten years as they simply cannot carry on at the levels of predation.
‘The Norwegians told us that to reintroduce predators into our country would be an absolute catastrophe. Their experience has simply strengthened our resolve.’
And yet, the experience in Spain is markedly different. There they have gone so far as to build wildlife underpasses in the countryside to connect lynx territories and reduce the risk of them being hit by cars.
In the Scottish parliament last week the SNP’s Kenneth Gibson said the Iberian lynx had ‘gone from the world’s most endangered feline to the greatest triumph in cat conservation anywhere in just 20 years’.
In that period, he said, numbers had risen from under 100 to more than 1,100.
He added: ‘The animals are popular even with farmers and landowners who now realise that Iberian lynx don’t prey on lambs or domestic animals but displace foxes which do.’
Some locals he said, were putting on tourist trips for visitors hoping to see the lynx in the wild.
Mr Gibson pointed to Switzerland where ‘problem’ lynx can be shot under licence if they take 15 or more sheep a year. Across the
whole country, he said, sheep casualties from lynx attacks had numbered less than 50 a year since 2006.
Meanwhile, in Fife, a single dog killed 16 lambs in Fife earlier this month.
Supposing they could be trusted to predate on the right animals rather than the wrong ones, then, what benefits would lynx bring to the Scottish countryside?
For some they represent a vital missing piece in our ecological jigsaw.
As Mr Hetherington puts it: ‘By restoring lynx we would be restoring predation on our deer populations, something that, for centuries, has only been achieved by human hunters or opportunistically by the odd fox or eagle.
‘By killing a deer a week all year round, and leaving what it doesn’t eat on the forest floor, including meat, bones and skin… the lynx also regularly provides food for other species, from beetles to eagles and even the soil itself, in a way that humans and the opportunistic predators tend not to do.
‘So while the very act of restoring the wild, beautiful, charismatic lynx may be seen as the aesthetic embodiment of rewilding, it also brings with it the less glamorous natural processes that are central to its ethos.’
Another anticipated benefit is the change in behaviour of the lynx’s prey species. With the arrival of a hunter, deer would become ‘predator aware’ and therefore kept on the move which would reduce overgrazing.
According to his own doctoral research, a viable population of 400 lynx could survive in forests north of the Central Belt while a ‘more fragile’ population of some 50 could exist in the Southern Uplands and across the Border into the English Kielder Forest territory.
As for the capercaillie, it may not all be bad news either.
Lynx To Scotland, a year-long feasibility study published last year, found that, while many considered the risk to the birds too great, evidence from Europe found very low prevalence of capercaillie in the diet of the lynx. Indeed, research in Switzerland found the beasts were much more interested in foxes which already prey on the capercaillies.
In one online essay, Could We Live With Lynx, Mr Hetherington suggests: ‘This fox-killing behaviour is widely reported from around Europe and could actually serve to benefit ground-nesting birds.’
At best, however, even the experts can offer only educated guesses as to the likely impact of lynx in Scotland. And the questions raised by those with little expertise have no easy answers. One which came up repeatedly in last year’s study was this: ‘Why would lynx hunt hard to catch deer when they could easily hop over a fence and catch sheep?’
And what about the emotional toll on farmers incurring livestock loss to lynx? As 2022 study stated: ‘For many farmers, the potential for financial compensation missed the point – the real impact is on their emotional welfare and ways of life.’
Peter Cairns, executive director of rewilding charity Scotland: The Big Picture, said it was ‘good news’ that policymakers were now seriously discussing the return of the lynx.
‘Scotland is one of the poorest places on Earth for nature,’ he said. ‘If we are serious about tackling the nature and climate emergencies, these conversations really matter.’
Conservative MSP Edward Mountain, who represents the Highlands and Islands, believes the conversation should be a short one.
‘The last thing the Highlands needs is the lynx effect,’ he said. ‘I see very little appetite for the reintroduction of this species from those who actually manage our countryside.’
Instead, he said, Scotland should prioritise conservation efforts for the species it is in danger of losing. ‘Adding another predator into the mix is unlikely to help.’
For now, the would-be chieftain of the food chain must bide its time. It left these isles with a whimper; its return would be met with much noise.