Deal or no deal... Humza is finished
Humza Yousaf’s leadership hangs in the balance and with it the SNP’s grip on power.
The First minister and his government each faces a motion of no confidence, neither of which mr Yousaf can win on the strength of SNP votes alone.
If Holyrood withdraws confidence in him, he will come under intense pressure to quit. If mSPs vote against the entire government, the law says he must tender his resignation.
If Holyrood cannot confirm a new First minister within 28 days, there will be an extraordinary Scottish election. That would be unprecedented in the devolved era.
Little wonder, then, that mr Yousaf is desperately trying to scrabble together the necessary votes to save his skin.
Now his mentor-turned-foe alex Salmond has stepped forward, offering himself as a potential saviour. He is pushing for an electoral pact between the SNP and his alba Party, which holds a single seat at Holyrood. mr Yousaf needs just one more vote to survive a motion of no confidence.
SNP insiders dismiss the possibility of an electoral non-aggression treaty with mr Salmond’s faction, yet the very fact his offer had to be considered underlines the dire state of mr Yousaf’s premiership.
He is weak, vulnerable and reduced to begging for support to cling to power. He even sent a pitiful, crawling letter requesting a meeting with Douglas Ross.
How quickly we have gone from talk of a ‘Tory-free Scotland’ to the sight of a Torycourting SNP First minister.
This is what happens when you are at the mercy of events.
The mere possibility of a deal between mr Yousaf and mr Salmond has struck an exposed nerve in Scottish Nationalism.
a great many within the SNP, previously full-throated Salmond loyalists, have since decided he is persona non grata.
They will no longer work with him or his party under any circumstances.
mr Salmond and those SNP members who defected to alba regard their former colleagues as sell-outs who have parked the cause of independence in order to pursue transgender rights and climate change.
It is difficult to see how these entrenched positions can be drawn closer together, but even if a deal is struck to save mr Yousaf’s job it will represent only a temporary stay.
The First minister’s authority is gone and soon he will be too.