Sorry John, but the honeymoon’s over... polls show SNP heading for election disaster
JOHN Swinney is facing the ‘shortest honeymoon in political history’ after two polls put the SNP on course for catastrophic back-to-back defeats.
In a blow to Nationalist hopes that he would be a clean break from past troubles, the latest surveys show the new First Minister failing to stem the dramatic haemorrhaging of support.
Mr Swinney, who took over as SNP leader on Monday, yesterday set the clock ticking on yet another countdown to independence after claiming Scotland could exit the Union within five years.
But polling suggests he and his party are increasingly out of touch with voters.
A survey of Westminster voting intentions of 1,000 Scots by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, which took place on Wednesday and Thursday, indicates the SNP is on track to lose 30 MPs.
The results give Labour its largest lead of any polling in Scotland since 2014 at 38 per cent – up five points from last month – with the Nationalists trailing behind at 31 per cent, down a point.
Strathclyde University political scientist Professor Sir John Curtice said that if repeated at a general election this would see the SNP crash from 43 seats to just 13, with Scottish Labour going from two MPs to 33.
A separate poll by Savanta also has Labour ahead in a Westminster contest by 37 to 33 per cent – which would see the SNP lose more than half its MPs.
In the last Savanta survey in October, Labour and the SNP were still neck-and-neck.
The polling firm also found the SNP had fallen behind in voting intentions for the 2026 Holyrood election. Both parties are tied on 35 per cent – though Labour has edged in front on the list vote, by 32 per cent to 26 per cent. That would be enough for Anas Sarwar to form a minority government.
The Savanta survey of 1,000 voters took place between May 3, when it became clear Mr Swinney would succeed Humza Yousaf, and May 8, by which time he had been elected First Minister.
Scottish Tory chairman Craig Hoy said: ‘Voters know John Swinney just spells more of the same – with the same recycled Cabinet and failing policies of the Sturgeon and Yousaf eras – which is why this appears to be the shortest honeymoon in political history.
‘John Swinney has made it clear he and his government will not just continue, but accelerate, their relentless and divisive push for independence. He is picking up where he left off during his time in Nicola Sturgeon’s failed government, focusing only on governing in the Nationalists’ interests, rather than the national interest.’
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: ‘Our findings underline the major uphill task John Swinney faces.
‘The SNP is likely to fall quite far from the 43 seats they hold at the next general election.
‘Even if Swinney can begin to turn things around, the spectre of Sturgeon and everything her time in power is now associated with will continue to hang over the party and hamper any recovery.’
Professor Curtice said: ‘The most interesting question to ask is whether the installation of Swinney has proven an immediate remedy for the SNP’s difficulties or perhaps it has done little more than stem the rot occurring under Yousaf. It looks more like the latter.’ In more good news for Scottish Labour, the party was yesterday celebrating by-election victory in Kilwinning.
Labour took the North Ayrshire Council seat from the Tories, but with a 10 per cent swing from the SNP. Mr Sarwar said: ‘This result shows people right across Scotland are crying out for change.’
Meanwhile Mr Swinney, who chaired his first Cabinet meeting yesterday, has already talked up another independence push.
Asked on Sky News if he thinks Britain could be broken up within five years, he said: ‘Independence can be delivered in that timescale because the arguments for it are compelling.
‘I acknowledge we have work to do to build greater support for independence and that’s what my leadership will be all about.’