December labour demand drops year-on-year

Despite falls relative to previous years, demand overall is still substantial, with the latest Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) and Lightcast Labour Market Tracker showing 1.7million active job postings in December.

December is always a quiet month for recruitment, as Christmas hiring is generally completed and clients tend to postpone new activity into January, so the fall in posting numbers from November is no surprise.

By contrast, the like-for-like comparison with the previous two Decembers, which came amid the post-pandemic sugar rush of hiring, emphasise the sequential slowing of the market in 2023.

REC chief executive Neil Carberry said: “It is little surprise that jobs postings were muted in December because employers tend to have completed Christmas hiring by November, and then postpone new activity until the new year.

“The labour market weakened across 2023, especially for permanent roles.

“But it did so from a very high base.

“Comparing with previous Decembers, we can see a significant fall from the levels of activity in previous post-pandemic festive periods.

“It is important to remember that activity levels overall remain relatively high by comparison to pre-pandemic norms, and unemployment is low.

“There remains opportunity out there for jobseekers, especially in growing sectors.

“Anecdote and client survey data suggests there is hope for more growth in the market this year.

“As the economy grows, businesses will be looking to government to use the Spring Budget to unlock labour supply with action from welfare-to-work programmes to skills reform and a more sensible debate on immigration.” Mr Carberry added: “Uncertainty about the economy this year means we must make sure we support young people as they leave education.

“This must include rethinking the Apprenticeship Levy to refocus levy money on 16–24-yearolds and those most in need – and more flexibility so that businesses can use it for high quality shorter training courses that will help plus skills gaps.”

Occupations with notable increases in adverts in December 2023 include prison service officers (+34.7 per cent), authors, writers, and translators (+10.3 per cent), air transport operatives (+4 per cent) and speech and language therapists

(+3.0%).

Psychotherapists and cognitive behavioural therapists (3.7 per cent), dental nurses (-6.4 per cent) and childminders (-6.6 per cent) follow with the softest declines in job postings this month.

Manual labour roles were not particularly in demand during the December timeframe, with painters and decorators (-41.1 per cent), packers, bottlers, canners and fillers (-40.5 per cent) and road transport drivers (-40.2 per cent) showing the lowest growth in job adverts.

When looking at the top ten counties/unitary authorities for growth in active job postings, five were based in London.

This suggests a more encouraging trend for the capital’s job market and economy than reported in alternative recent jobs surveys. Of the bottom ten areas with the lowest growth in active job postings, five were in Scotland and four were in Northern Ireland.

This chimes with the REC/KPMG Scotland Report on Jobs which found that overall demand for staff weakened further, with both permanent and temp vacancies declining markedly in December.

Across the UK, Tower Hamlets (-7.7 per cent), Haringey and Islington (-11.0 per cent) and Orkney Islands (-12.0 per cent) had the softest decline in job postings when compared to November 2023.

Belfast (-34.2 per cent), Fermanagh and Omagh (-34.3 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-41.5 per cent) all accounted for the sharpest decline in job postings.