LABOUR’S CARDIFF POLL BOOST
THE Labour Party is on course to win back the seats it lost to the Conservatives in Wales in the 2015 general election, and hold on to its three Cardiff seats, a new poll has indicated.
The latest findings of the Welsh Political Barometer poll, published yesterday, predict that Jeremy Corbyn’s party could be set to have the best night it has had in the country since 2001, winning 46% of the vote share.
The figure represents a dramatic turnaround for the party and is up 16 points on the first Wales-wide opinion poll of the General Election campaign, published on April 24, when the Conservatives were predicted to win the majority of parliamentary seats in Wales for the first time in the democratic era.
In that prediction, Labour trailed 10 points behind on 30%.
Based on a uniform swing across all seats, that figure suggested the Tories would capture both Cardiff West and Cardiff South and Penarth from Labour.
The second poll on May 8 predicted a 6% lead for the Tories.
A third poll on May 22 put Labour ahead for the first time and the latest YouGov poll for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and ITV Cymru Wales puts Labour on 46% (up 2% on the last poll); Conservatives on 35% (up 1%); Plaid Cymru on 8% (down 1%); Liberal Democrats on 5% (down 1%); Ukip on 5% (no change) and others 0% (down 3%).
Professor Roger Scully, from Cardiff University, said the results showed the previous poll was not a “fluke”.
“Welsh Labour, these polls are suggesting strongly, are very much back,” he said.
“Indeed, if the figures from this poll were to be produced on election day then we would see the Labour Party gain their largest vote share in Wales at a general election since 2001.
“That would be an extraordinary achievement for the party.”
Based on the latest figures, Labour is now predicted to win 27 of the country’s 40 seats – an increase of two on its total in the 2015 general election.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are predicted to take nine seats (down two), Plaid Cymru three seats (no change) and the Liberal Democrats one seat (no change).
The poll suggests the Conservatives would lose both of the seats gained from Labour in the last general election: Gower and the Vale of Clwyd.
Prof Scully said: “For the Conservatives, the reversal in their fortunes seems to reflect less a decline in their support and more the success of Labour.”
He said in the first two polls of the campaign, approximately two-thirds of Ukip voters backed the Conservatives but that had slipped to just over half, while the “emphasis on leadership may also be much less of an advantage than it was”, with Theresa May’s poll ratings having slipped while Mr Corbyn’s popularity has risen.
Prof Scully added: “Prospects for the election are, however, starting to look very ominous for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.
“Were the two parties to do no better on polling day than in our latest poll, then this would be Plaid’s lowest general election vote share since 1987, and the worst ever experienced in Wales by the Liberal Democrats and their predecessor parties.”
The Welsh poll comes a day after a seat projection poll for The Times by YouGov suggested the Conservatives could be on course to lose the General Election, leaving the UK facing a hung parliament.
The poll, for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1,014 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from May 29 to 31.