Does PRO12 really need the addition of two South African sides to thrive?

SO two South African teams coming on board, two conferences of seven involving home and away matches... oh, and at least one game against sides in the other conference.

Don’t forget too, that the prospect of teams from North America coming on board is still very real.

This is the brave new world of the Guinness PRO12, already starting to look like a dog’s breakfast before the revamp has even been confirmed.

Those in charge of factoring in these changes had better be careful; there is a very real danger that in their quest to improve the standard and appeal of the league they will end up destroying it.

For the cynics, there is little to destroy, of course. The PRO12 is the poor northern hemisphere relation to England’s Aviva Premiership and the French Top 14. It has nothing to lose by broadening its horizons.

And yet the way Glasgow, Connacht and the Scarlets have won the last three titles has cast the PRO12 in an increasingly favourable light. It is a cross-border affair not without it’s problems, but few would argue that it diminishing. In fact the opposite is the case.

From a rugby perspective then, there is a compelling argument for leaving well alone.

PRO12 bean-counters will tell you that expansion into alternative markets is vital for the financial viability of the tournament, but there must be grave doubts that expansion of this sort is the right option to pursue.

Sometimes less is more, and the caveat existing PRO12 teams are placing on the South African experiment about the preservation of derby matches gives away their uncertainty over what is a classic stick or twist dilemma.

It is a nod to the importance of geographical rivalry to attendance figures and subsequently revenue streams, something which underpins the rude health of the English and French top flights.

For an example of how expansion can dilute the relevance of a competition we need only look at Super Rugby, which has seen dwindling TV viewing figures and crowd numbers in the last two years to the point where its very existence when current broadcasting contracts expire in 2020 is now being called into question.

The problem is a developing apathy among punters in two of Super Rugby’s core markets – Australia and South Africa.

Those who decry attendance figures in Welsh Regional rugby should perhaps look to Australia for perspective. None of their five Super Rugby franchises have averaged more than 15,500 crowds in 2017.

Three – Perth-based Western Force, the Canberra-based Brumbies and Melbourne Rebels – don’t even average five-figure gates, with the Rebels’ figure languishing at 8,446.

The usual mitigation of rugby union being just the fourth most popular sport in Australia will be cited by apologists, but that Rebels number is pathetic in a monster sporting nervecentre like Melbourne, even if it is a rugby league hotbed.

You could say similar about the New South Wales Waratahs who couldn’t persuade more than 11,000 souls through the Allianz Stadium turnstiles for a game against Argentine franchise the Jaguares last week in a city of more than five million people.

One southern hemisphere critic claimed the fixture marked a new low in terms of appeal, pointing out that home fans knew nothing about Jaguares players and that a battle for points in a South African conference where most games happen while Australians and New Zealanders are asleep has obvious consequences for levels of interest.

That the Kings and the Cheetahs are leaving for the PRO12 says all you need to know about the demise of South African provincial rugby.

The loss of top players to England and France, the struggling economy