Referendum call on more AMs as poll reveals split

UKIP-COMMISSIONED research suggests supporters of a bigger Assembly will face an uphill – but not impossible – challenge in convincing the public of the case for more AMs at Cardiff’s Senedd.

Pollsters Opinium surveyed more than 1,000 adults across Wales and found nearly a third of people (32%) wanted an increase in the number of AMs from the present 60.

However 43% did not want any more AMs and 26% of people did not know whether the number should increase or stay the same.

The findings come as the results of a consultation launched by the Assembly Commission – the body that runs the institution – on a raft of possible changes are being analysed.

The Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform last year concluded the Assembly needed between 80 and 90 members.

Opinium’s research found nearly a fifth (19%) of people supported increasing the Assembly to 80 AMs. Some 13% back a 90-member Assembly.

It is estimated increasing the Assembly by 20 AMs would cost £6.6m. An increase of 30 would cost £9.6m. Any change would require a two-thirds majority of AMs.

The polling found differences in attitudes between men and women.

More than half of men (51%) did not want any more AMs but only a third (33%) of women were opposed to an increase.

While 34% of women were in the “don’t know” category, this was true for only 17% of men.

Ukip is demanding a referendum be held before the number of AMs is increased.

A spokesman said: “Wales is the poorest nation in the UK yet the Cardiff Bay establishment are putting all their energies behind expanding the unproductive political sector...

“In 2011, the Welsh people were rightfully asked to go to the polls and vote on increased powers for the Welsh Assembly.

“Ukip Wales demands that the people are asked if they support an increase in Assembly Members in the form of a referendum... [We] will be the only party fighting against expansion of the National Assembly.”

The Assembly gained the power to increase its number of members and change the electoral system in the most recent Wales Act.

While Wales has 60 AMs serving a population of 3.1m, Northern Ireland has 90 Members of the Legislative Assembly representing 1.9m people.

Scotland’s 5.4m citizens are served by 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament.

Plaid Cymru Mid and West AM Simon Thomas said: “This is the first time we in Wales have had the powers to make a change, which is why the [Plaid Presiding Officer Elin Jones] has decided to begin that process.”

Today 40 AMs are elected by the first past the post process used to elect MPs and 20 come from regional lists.

Mr Thomas made the case for all AMs to be elected through proportional representation, saying: “We need a fairer way to elect Assembly Members through a totally proportional way such as the Single Transferable Vote. I would like to have seen what people feel about this.”

Ukip South Wales Central AM Gareth Bennett was not impressed by the Assembly Commission’s public consultation and suspected it was intended to “hoodwink the Welsh public into accepting more AMs by stealth”.

He said: “It’s not going to work and it isn’t going to happen without a referendum.”

A spokesman for the Assembly Commission said: “Following the unanimous agreement of the National Assembly in February 2018, the Creating a Parliament for Wales consultation ran from February 12 to April 6.

“The consultation covered the size of the Assembly, how Assembly Members should be elected, who should be allowed to vote in Assembly elections, who should be able to be an Assembly Member, as well as changes to electoral administration and the Assembly’s internal arrangements...

“We recognise that this poll will generate further comment and discussion as would be expected on an issue as important as the size and shape of our national parliament.

“The responses are being analysed and a report on the consultation will be published in due course.

“The Assembly Commission will consider the next steps for its Assembly reform work at a future meeting.”

A spokesman for the Welsh Conservatives said: “We await the findings of that consultation with interest.”