How do Wales compare against the ‘big two’ in world rugby?
WITH the dust settling on the autumn international window, the final world order of 2018 shows Wales sitting proudly in third spot.
Five weeks ago, there were sceptics ready to scoff at that notion, suggesting Warren Gatland’s men hadn’t really done enough to merit that lofty position – hence all those ‘flying under the radar’ references.
However, stirring victories over Australia and South Africa have silenced those doubters and left Wales on the coat-tails of both New Zealand and Ireland.
According to the official world rankings released this week, the All Blacks remain the best team on the planet.
They have 92.54 points in the ranking system, closely followed by Ireland on 91.17 before a gap to Wales (87.24), England (86.22) and the rest.
Despite their defeat to the Irish in Dublin, and despite Steve Hansen’s assertion that it was Ireland who are now top dogs, you will be hard pressed to find a bookmaker who won’t make the men in black favourites to retain the Webb Ellis trophy in Japan next year. But how far are Wales behind?
The fact they haven’t beaten the men in black for 65 long years suggests there is still a significant gap to close, but if Hansen’s side were to be playing in Cardiff this weekend, Wales certainly wouldn’t be going out there with damage limitation in mind.
As for Ireland, crowned the team of the year at World Rugby’s glittering awards ceremony in Monaco on Sunday night, are they that further ahead of Wales these days?
We try and assess how big the gap really is?
STRENGTH IN DEPTH
Hansen was accused of cheapening the All Blacks jersey when he named eight debutants in the side to face Japan in Tokyo at the start of the month.
Yet that line-up contained the likes of wing Waisake Naholo, 2015 World Cup star Nehe Milner-Skuder, Crusaders fly-half Richie Mo’unga and hooker Dane Coles, widely regarded as the best hooker in the game before his injury issues. New Zealand run out 69-31 victors.
The options Hansen has at his disposal is scary, particularly behind the scrum.
Ireland’s success has been built on similar foundations – highlighted by the fact that Joe Schmidt can afford to leave out a player of the calibre and form of Tadhg Beirne from his firstchoice match-day 23.
As for Wales, depth and the battle for places has been a common theme of this autumn series, with players and coaches insisting it is the most competitive squad they have been involved in.
Do Wales possess the depth of New Zealand?
No, but who does?
Gatland now has at least three flyhalves he would be comfortable throwing into a World Cup showdown, an abundance of back-three options and back-rowers lining up for an opportunity.
The emergence of Adam Beard, Tomos Williams and Dillon Lewis over the last six months has been a bonus and when you consider Wales went through the autumn without Taulupe Faletau, Scott Williams, Samson Lee, Aaron Shingler and Josh Navidi. No wonder Gatland is optimistic about the 10 months that lies in wait.
Verdict: Gatland has more depth than he has ever enjoyed. The squad is now strong enough to cope with injuries to key personnel across the board.
If you were to pit New Zealand’s second string against Ireland and Wales, you would back the Blacks every time,
but there wouldn’t be much to choose between Ireland and Wales.
THE WINNING HABIT
It has often been a criticism levelled at Wales that they have lacked the killer instinct to see out close wins against the top sides.
But there has been a noticeable maturity to their performances during this nine-match winning run.
On Saturday, momentum appeared to be with the Springboks in the second half, but aided by another strong performance from the bench, Wales grabbed hold of the contest in the final quarter.
On tour in Argentina, they kept the Pumas at arm’s length throughout and this autumn, were New Zealand-esque in their clinical second-half dismantling of Tonga.
Verdict: The All Blacks have lost just eight Tests since winning the 2011 Rugby World Cup and have dominated the world game in that time.
But Ireland’s win in Dublin and New Zealand’s late escape against England in Twickenham will have planted some seeds of doubt in Kiwi minds ahead of next year’s tournament.
Certainly, Ireland, having won 10 of their last 12 and Wales their last nine, won’t feel as if there is a mental hurdle to climb.
HALF-BACK CONTROL
Perhaps it’s here where the All Blacks and Ireland hold an advantage over Wales.
Even though Gareth Anscombe had a fine campaign in the pivotal role, there is still debate as to who is Wales’s first choice, a discussion that is sure to rage on during the Six Nations and onto Japan.
Gareth Davies had a solid if unspectacular campaign inside him, but will be wary of the presence of Tomos Williams snapping at his heels.
In contrast, fitness permitting, New Zealand and Ireland’s half-back pairings already appear nailed on for the World Cup.
Newly-crowned world player of the year Johnny Sexton has been the driving force behind Ireland’s success and will no doubt be reunited with Conor Murray – regarded as the best scrum-half in the game – come February.
We haven’t witnessed Beauden Barrett’s box of tricks this November, but his running game is capable of lighting up the World Cup, while inside him Aaron Smith is a slick operator who now has 82 Test caps in his locker.
Verdict: New Zealand and Ireland have clear water between them and Wales in terms of the quality at nine and ten.
PHYSICALITY
There used to be a school of thought that claimed northern hemisphere players lacked the physical, abrasive edge of the south’s heavyweights. Not any more.
Ireland and Wales boast packs full of players who revel in the attritional forward battles.
Both have players adept at the breakdown, strong over the ball, while in Andy Farrell and Shaun Edwards, Ireland and Wales can lay claim to the best defensive coaches in rugby.
These days, it is not a case of matching the All Blacks’ power game, more so trying to cope with their guile and wit. Verdict: No gap here, Wales showed in the autumn, they can stand toe to toe when it comes to the physical battle.
OVERALL VERDICT
The Six Nations will provide a clearer picture of whether Ireland have stolen a march on Wales and the rest, but both sides look well matched at present.
If you were to pick a composite side from Welsh and Irish players, there would be at least six of Warren Gatland’s team in there and that’s discounting the injured Faletau.
Irish rugby is in a strong place, Leinster are a fearsome force in the PRO14 and Europe and that drive and hunger for success has transferred to the national team.
Take both Sexton and Murray out of that Irish side, however, and the outlook changes, but with those two pulling the strings they are a side more than capable of success in Japan.
As for the All Blacks, this autumn has shown some flaws but they remain clear favourites to win a third successive World Cup.
Their depth is unrivalled, while in Ben Smith, Barrett, Brodie Retallick and Kieran Reed they possess a worldclass spine of talent.
There is no doubt the gap has closed, the top eight in the world is now the most competitive it has ever been.
But New Zealand remain the gold standard.