Long-term Welsh weather forecast as climate change starts to bite
THIS summer saw record breaking temperatures, roads melt and reservoirs dry up.
For what felt like forever, Wales basked under scorching temperatures and heatwave conditions for much of the summer.
In some parts of the country the mercury hit 33°C and rainfall was almost half the average for a Welsh summer.
One of the hottest summers in the last 100 years, it felt like a rare spell of constant sunshine.
But new research shows that Wales could see similar conditions become the norm due to climate change.
Although warmer summers might sound like a positive, experts say that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, everyday life could be severely affected.
If emissions continue to climb, sea levels in Cardiff could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100 and summer temperatures could soar to more than 5°C higher than current levels in the coming decades.
The UK Climate Projections by the Met Office provides the most up-todate assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st century.
Met Office head of climate services professor Jason Lowe said: “Over the UK we expect a move towards a greater chance of hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters.
“Now that doesn’t mean every summer or winter will change in that way, we’ll still get colder summers, we’ll still get drier winters, because of natural variability.
“What we’re seeing in the results is that climate change shifts the odds of those extreme seasons.”
These are the key findings from the Met Office report, with figures compared to the average between 1981 to 2000:
By the end of the century, it is likely that most parts of Wales will experience reduced rainfall in the summer under both high and low scenarios.
Small increases are possible, but unlikely.
A low emission future could see summers become 33% drier to 3% wetter.
A high emission prediction could see summers 56% drier to 2% wetter.
The size of the rainfall reduction depends strongly on the area of Wales, with the largest increases in south Wales and smaller increases in north Wales.
These figures represent an average for Wales and regional values may vary.
In the winter months it could become 2% drier to 19% wetter under a low emission scenario.
A high emission scenario could see no change to 29% wetter.
By the end of the century, it is very likely that most parts of Wales will experience increases in average summer temperature under both high and low scenarios.
The size of the temperature increase depends on the region, with largest increases affecting the South of Wales.
But for all regions, the amount of warming is highly dependent on emissions scenarios.
Under a low emissions scenario, summer temperatures are likely to increase by around 0.5°C to 3°C, with a mid-range value of 1.5°C.
A high emissions scenario could see summer temperatures likely to increase by around 2.5°C to 8°C, with a mid-range value of 5°C.
During winter it is likely that by the end of the century, Wales will see higher average temperatures.
Winter temperature increases are typically smaller than those projected for the summer.
Under a low emissions scenario, winter temperatures are likely to change by around 0°C to increasing by 2°C, with a mid-range value of a 1C increase.
Under a high emissions scenario, winter temperatures are likely to