From faltering how England favourites for

WALES stand on the brink of a record-breaking 12th successive Test victory at the Principality Stadium on Saturday, with confidence levels soaring.

Yet England will start as favourites to win what has become the pivotal match of this season’s Six Nations despite being on enemy turf.

There are cogent reasons for that over and above traditional Welsh pessimism, and we’ll examine those reasons here.

Last year, Eddie Jones’ team finished a scarcely believable fifth in the championship table and appeared to be stuck in a malaise.

Defeats to Scotland, France and Ireland were followed by a 63-45 humiliation at the hands of the Barbarians and two consecutive summer defeats to South Africa in a sixgame losing run that seemingly put Eddie Jones’ job on the line.

But on the evidence of their first two wins against Ireland and France this month, they once again look formaidable.

So how have they done it?

THE VUNIPOLA FACTOR

When Billy Vunipola returned at No.8 to face South Africa in Johannesburg in June last year, it was only his second start for his country in 17 months because of injury.

Suffice to say, he was missed. Most teams have players with pace and power who you expect to get over the gain-line.

With Vunipola you don’t just expect it, you’re certain of it. He comes with a guarantee.

He is the epicentre of the English power game at present. His go-forward keeps the entire team on the front foot.

Crucially, he provides an armchair ride for his half-backs, especially fly-half Owen Farrell.

If you play at nine or 10, Vunipola is your dream No.8.

It’s no exaggeration to suggest he could be the difference between England contending at the World Cup or winning the thing.

JOHN MITCHELL AND THE NEW ENGLAND DEFENCE

Kiwi John Mitchell has only been with England since September after leaving his post at South African side Bulls to join Eddie Jones’ backroom staff, but already the 54-year-old has made a massive impact.

Under Mitchell, England have placed an emphasis on stopping one-out pods from scrum-half – with the fringe defenders blitzing the static runners off nine.

In that regard, England are happy to give up the overlap in this system – but it’s rare that they get outflanked as shown by how they suffocated Ireland’s game by cutting off the pods playing off Conor Murray before they could either get front-foot ball or launch a wide attack with a pass out the back.

If they do get it out wide, then England’s wide players push up into the line to put pressure on the ball.

It’s fairly similar to New Zealand’s ‘whip’ defence in that sense – whereby the defence follows the ball, coming up man after man in the defensive line to pressure the attack.

Although they have now found a more traditional openside in Tom Curry, England tend to slow opposition ball down at the breakdown by going in search of the ‘double hit’.

They look to get two men in the tackle, usually resulting in a maul - allowing their defensive line more time to reset.

THE FARRELL FACTOR

While we’re on the subject of factors, let’s not forget Owen Farrell – and his X-factor.

For the first two years of Eddie Jones’ tenure Farrell played at centre, with George Ford preferred at No.10.

That changed last autumn. Jones appears to have decided Farrell is his World Cup play-maker – and it’s a decision that is paying off so far.

Farrell faced accusations of being a manufactured player in his early days, but his vision and decision-making has come on a bomb in the last few years.

THE MIDFIELD BALANCE WITH MANU TUILAGI

When Ford was at 10 and Farrell at 12, England were defensively far more suspect. Ford does not relish tackling. Farrell does, but his technique is flawed. He likes to smash people, and subsequently he has a tendency to fall off some challenges.

Now, with Farrell next to the fit-again Manu Tuilagi, there is a lovely balance.

Because of his appalling injury record, coach Jones has never really enjoyed the luxury of being able to pick Tuilagi until the last few months.

Now he’s seeing just what he has missed. Along with Vunipola, Tuilagi gives England fearsome forward thrust.

Outside him, is Henry Slade, arguably the most under-rated player in the England back-line.

Slade is a vital cog, a brilliant decision maker, and the triumvirate he forms with Farrell and Tuilagi is mouthwatering.

CURRY’S EMERGENCE

The one sort of player England lacked seemingly for an eternity was a classic jackaling openside flanker, someone who could get in over the ball and burgle possession in tight situations.

Now they have found their man. His name is Tom Curry and he plays for Sale Sharks.

While the Lions were in New Zealand in 2017, Curry was in Argentina winning his first cap for his country.

He is still only 20, and if he maintains his present standards there’s no telling how many Lions tours he’ll end up going on.

Finally, Jones has a fetcher of